Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went off for a monstrous 35 points in Sunday’s Game 7 blowout win over the Denver Nuggets to lead the Oklahoma City Thunder to the Western Conference Finals.
With just four wins separating him and the Thunder from a trip to the NBA Finals, what can we expect from him in Game 1?
My NBA picks expect SGA to come out aggressively and set the tone in the series opener against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Paycom Center on Tuesday, May 20. Find out which SGA player props I’m targeting for tonight’s tip at 8:30 p.m. ET.
For more on this clash, check out Douglas Farmer's Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions for Game 1.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player prop picks
- Best bet
SGA o9.5 free-throw attempts
(-105) - SGP pick
SGA o8.5 1Q points
SGA 30+ points
SGA o5.5 rebounds
(+375)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander best bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 9.5 free-throw attempts (-105 at bet365)
Unfortunately, free-throw and field-goal attempt props can’t be parlayed with other props, but this one is too good to pass up. I’ll take it as a straight wager for my best bet and include three more props below in a +375 parlay.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has made a name for himself drawing contact and living at the free-throw line. During the regular season, he averaged the third-most attempts at the charity stripe with 8.8 per game. He’s averaged 9.5 across his last eight playoff games, getting double-digit attempts in four and at least nine in six.
Over the last three seasons, SGA has averaged his most free-throw attempts against the Minnesota Timberwolves, going for 11 per game across 12 matchups. The Wolves are the only team he’s averaged at least 10 free-throw attempts against, and he’s gone for at least 10 in nine of 12.
Minnesota has had some time off after a brief, five-game series with Golden State, but the Oklahoma City Thunder are fresh off a blowout win over the Nuggets in Game 7 on Sunday. Expect the team to be riding high, and for the home crowd to match that energy in Game 1.
After taking 48 free throws across four regular-season matchups with Minnesota this season — including 10 or more in three — I’m betting SGA sets up shop at the charity stripe in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander same-game parlay
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 8.5 1Q points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 rebounds
I expect SGA to set the tone by attacking the basket and getting Minnesota’s key defenders in foul trouble early. He averaged the most first-quarter points per game in the regular season at 10.1 and scored at least nine in 49 of 76 appearances. He averaged 10.5 at home and hit the Over on this line in 29 of 40 games at Paycom Center.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring line is set at 31.5, but I like the alt line a bit more for this parlay. SGA led the NBA in scoring at 32.7 points per game, including 33.4 at home.
His 49 games with at least 30 points were the most in the Association, and he reached that scoring milestone in 25 of 40 home games.
SGA averaged five boards per game in the regular season, but he’s upped that average to 6.2 across his last 10 playoff appearances. Over the last 10, he’s grabbed six or more rebounds five times.
In four matchups with the Timberwolves, he's grabbed 7.3 rebounds per game and hit the Over three times. Assuming he’ll be aggressive and attack the paint on offense, I expect that same energy on defense and at least six boards.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
