If Anthony Edwards seemed passive in the second-round win against the Golden State Warriors — while still averaging 24.2 points and shooting 44.2% from deep — Minnesota Timberwolves fans hold a common theory as to why.
He faulted himself in last year’s Western Conference Finals for being too exhausted. Managing his energy in the last round may have been part of his solution for a deeper postseason run.
That is a lesson the Oklahoma City Thunder have not had to learn the hard way just yet. If the Timberwolves superstar has bettered his conditioning, I know the perfect way to attack Anthony Edwards' odds for Game 1 on May 20.
For more NBA picks on this tilt, check out my Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions.
Anthony Edwards player prop picks
- Best bet
7+ assists
(+250 at bet365) - SGP pick
7+ assists
u25.5 points
o0.5 blocks
(+900 at bet365)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Anthony Edwards best bet
7+ assists (+250 at bet365)
Another aspect of Edwards’ postseason maturation has been trusting his teammates as he reads defenses. He's averaged 5.9 assists this postseason, reaching this lofty milestone four times in 10 games.
Oklahoma City will force Edwards to trust his teammates. The Thunder create a hard shell on defense, making drives difficult. Ant will still be able to drive. He is too good to be denied, but then Oklahoma City will collapse on him.
This defensive scheme created the best defensive rating in the NBA this year and should not be dismissed. But it also allowed the most corner 3-pointer attempts in the NBA — opponents taking them on 12.3% of shots and making 38.4% of those attempts.
The conversion rate is middling, the Thunder defense ranking No. 12 in that regard, but Oklahoma City gives opponents that chance. And it will do so when Edwards drives.
If he can trust the likes of Mike Conley, Donte DiVincenzo and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to make those looks, then the assists should pile up.
Anthony Edwards same-game parlay
7+ assists
Under 25.5 points
Over 0.5 blocks
Take one guess who does not shoot corner 3-pointers very often. Only 6% of Edwards’s field-goal attempts came from the corner this year. That stands out for a prolific 3-point shooter, but it also makes sense. His best look from deep is stepping into one at the top.
Oklahoma City is more stingy with those non-corner looks, ranking No. 15 in rate of takes and No. 1 in opposing percentage away from the corner, foes making only 33.2%. Edwards will fare better than that; he is again too good not to, but it will be more of a struggle.
He may need to bide his time in the first two games and instead focus on involving his teammates. That maturation raises the Timberwolves’ ceiling.
As for including a blocked shot from Edwards, one part of the thought is value. Should a prop juiced to -175 raise this parlay to +900 from +550? The algorithm must assume Edwards’ moving the ball and not scoring would be a low-effort approach. That would be an incorrect assumption.
Secondly, Edwards despises the whistle Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gets. SGA was not whistled for a foul on this Edwards dunk. Soon thereafter, Edwards erased an SGA drive.
I want this photo to show up in a @Covers article today, so posting right now simply to embed it. pic.twitter.com/L91v9kYMSD
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) May 20, 2025
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