The Dallas Mavericks earned their first win of the season on Sunday as they took down the Toronto Raptors in a high-scoring matchup. After back-to-back double-OT victories, the Oklahoma City Thunder recorded a comfortable win over the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday.
While OKC looks to improve to 4-0 despite a couple of close calls and a growing injury report, my Thunder vs. Mavericks predictions are keying in on Dallas big man Anthony Davis in a do-it-all game.
Here are my best free NBA picks at American Airlines Arena on Monday, October 27.
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Thunder vs Mavericks prediction
Thunder vs Mavericks best bet: Anthony Davis Over 37.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120)
Anthony Davis has been dominant to open the season, averaging 39.3 PRA across his first three games. He went for 36 in the opener before dropping 44 and 38 across his last two contests, respectively. Davis has a 29% usage rate thus far, and the Dallas Mavericks should continue to lean on him as a scorer and playmaker.
Davis can make a big impact in the paint against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have allowed the second-most rebounds to opponents this season, including the fifth-most offensive boards. Oklahoma City ranks 24th in defensive rebound percentage and has allowed the 12th-most second-chance points.
Oklahoma City’s frontcourt features two bigs in Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, but the former is questionable and could sit on the first leg of a back-to-back set.
Feeling good following Sunday’s victory, I expect Davis to come out aggressively and help the Mavs earn a second straight victory in front of the home crowd.
Thunder vs Mavericks same-game parlay
OKC has had a couple of close calls and is just 1-2 ATS. Playing its third straight road game and dealing with several key injuries, I don't expect the Thunder to win comfortably. They might eek out a dub, but Dallas will keep it close at home.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has had a tremendous start to the season, scoring at least 33 in two of his first three games and at least 30 in each contest. Expect him to stay aggressive here, especially with Holmgren operating at less than 100%.
Thunder vs Mavericks SGP
- Anthony Davis Over 37 points+rebounds+assists
- Mavericks +8
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: We've got a Lively one!
Daniel Gafford is questionable and may not yet be ready to make his season debut. That should mean plenty of work for Dereck Lively II at center. He’s posted 15 PRA in back-to-back contests and should be able to take advantage of this matchup.
Thunder vs Mavericks SGP
- Anthony Davis Over 37 points+rebounds+assists
- Mavericks +8
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 points
- Dereck Lively Over 13.5 points+rebounds+assists
Thunder vs Mavericks odds
- Spread: Thunder -8 (-110) | Mavericks +8 (-110)
- Moneyline: Thunder -320 | Mavericks +260
- Over/Under: Over 226.5 (-110) | Under 226.5 (-110)
Thunder vs Mavericks betting trend to know
Dallas has covered the spread in three of its last four head-to-head matchups with Oklahoma City. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Thunder vs Mavericks
| Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Monday, October 27, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN-OK, KFAA |
Thunder vs Mavericks latest injuries
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