The Seattle Mariners welcome the San Diego Padres to T-Mobile Park tonight for the beginning of a three-game set. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET.
I'm targeting San Diego to grab their fourth straight win against Seattle in my Padres vs. Mariners predictions, with Randy Vasquez on the hill for the visitors.
Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, May 15.
Who will win Padres vs Mariners today: Padres moneyline (+120)
The San Diego Padres are starting to turn things around, currently sitting in second place in the National League West. They've compiled a 12-8 record on the road this season, and the Padres swept the Seattle Mariners last month at Petco Park.
Randy Vasquez pitched in that series, and while he gave up four earned runs in only four frames, the righty has been a mile better away from Petco. Vasquez owns a 1.93 ERA on the road compared to a 3.86 ERA at home. He's only allowed three earned runs across his last two road outings.
Emerson Hancock, meanwhile, gets the ball for Seattle, and he allowed five earned runs last time out against the Chicago White Sox. Hancock gave up only two earned to the Padres last month, but he's surrendered seven earned across his previous three home outings.
COVERS INTEL: Seattle has lost four of their last six games at T-Mobile Park.
Padres vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 runs (-130)
When these two teams met in April, it was a very low-scoring series. Two of the three games cashed the Under, with just one contest going over seven runs scored combined. Considering the pitching matchup tonight, there is value again in that same play.
Vasquez continues to show his best when on the road, and he owns a 3.05 ERA overall. Although Hancock can get hit around at times this season, he still has a 3.21 ERA, and the right-hander has allowed more than three earned runs in a start just once in 2026, and that was in his most recent outing.
Also, we're looking at two very average offenses. The Padres are 24th in runs scored and 30th in average. The Mariners aren't much better, ranking 18th in runs and 24th in team average. Plus, both bullpens are relatively solid. Seattle's pen owns a 3.53 ERA, while San Diego's relievers have compiled an elite 3.03 ERA.
It won't be a high-scoring series opener at T-Mobile Park.
- ML/RL bets: 10-11, -4.71 units
- Over/Under bets: 12-9, +1.35 units
Padres vs Mariners odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +122 | Seattle -127
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-185) | Seattle -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+105) | Under 7.5 (-130)
Padres vs Mariners trend
The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 35 games (+6.35 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Mariners.
How to watch Padres vs Mariners and game info
| Location | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Friday, May 15, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
| Padres starting pitcher | Randy Vasquez (4-1, 3.05 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Emerson Hancock (3-1, 3.21 ERA) |
Padres vs Mariners latest injuries
Padres vs Mariners weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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