Monday’s NBA betting board is highlighted by a colossal non-conference clash when the Milwaukee Bucks host the Phoenix Suns at Fiserv Forum.
Milwaukee and Phoenix are deep into the postseason mix, with the Bucks sitting third in the Eastern Conference and the Suns currently second in the West. But despite those winning ways, both teams are coming off disappointing losses in their last outings. Phoenix hits the road for the first time since April 8, opening a five-game Eastern road trip versus the Bucks.
Check out our free NBA picks and predictions for Suns vs. Bucks on April 19.
Suns vs Bucks odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
NBA sharp money and line movement reportBy Patrick Everson
In a West vs. East clash, Milwaukee opened a 4.5-point favorite Sunday afternoon at PointsBet USA, dropped to -2 this morning and spent most of the day at -2.5. As of 4:45 p.m. ET, the Bucks are still -2.5 while attracting 52 percent of spread bets and 68 percent of spread money. The total opened at 233.5, rose to 235, receded to 232.5 and is now 233.5, with the Over taking 54 percent of bets/55 percent of money.Check out the full line movement for this game
Suns at Bucks betting preview
Suns: Abdel Nader F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Suns are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Bucks.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Defensively, the game plan is simple for the Bucks: protect the paint and force foes to shoot low percentage mid-range shots. Milwaukee is solid at this practice, holding opponents to 45.3 percent shooting from the field and limiting foes to an average of only 25.5 shots per game within five feet of the basket.
The thing is, Phoenix doesn’t thrive at the rim and is more than comfortable taking — and making — those longer 2-point attempts.
The Suns take a league-low 24.1 shots per game within that five-foot radius and instead find their happy place outside of 10 feet and beyond. And while the metrics preach anything but mid-range, Phoenix is incredibly efficient at those looks (46% between 10-24 feet) while also knocking down nearly 38 percent of 3-pointers.
Those shooting numbers do slip a bit on the road and the Suns are coming off one of their worst offensive efforts of the season — shooting a dismal 40 percent in a blowout loss to San Antonio on Saturday — but that shouldn’t scare bettors away.
In fact, that flat effort and with the No. 1 spot in the West just 1.5 games away, I expect a big push from Phoenix Monday night.
PREDICTION: Phoenix +3 (-110)
These non-conference combatants played in a track meet the last time they faced each other, with Phoenix edging out a 125-124 victory over Milwaukee at home on February 10. Both teams shot better than 50 percent from the field and combined for a collective 31 triples, blowing away the 229-point total.
The Bucks push one of the fastest paces in the NBA, posting a rating of 103.56 this month, and pile up 119 points per home game on the season. That’s manifested itself into an 18-9 Over/Under count when hitting the court inside Fiserv Forum (versus 15-13-1 O/U on the road).
The Suns have been one of the better Over bets no matter where they play, topping the number in six of their nine games in April. Phoenix has been quick to right the ship following an off night from the offense and Saturday’s 85-point effort was its lowest output of the season.
Head coach Monty Williams was smart to recognize the off night and was able to rest plenty of his starters in the loss to San Antonio, giving the Suns’ offense fresh legs for a big bounce-back spot in Milwaukee.
PREDICTION: Over 233.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
There are plenty of big names bubbling up in the MVP conversation and behind the notable frontrunners is Suns veteran PG Chris Paul.
In his first season in Phoenix, Paul has sparked a total turnaround for this franchise, powered by his 15.6 points and 8.7 assists per game. He played just over 22 minutes in the loss to the Spurs and has stayed below 30 minutes in five straight games, giving him plenty in the tank for this statement matchup.
As mentioned, Phoenix fits well against the Bucks’ defensive blueprint and Paul will thrive as a dribble-drive distributor while also hitting mid-range looks when the defense sags off. He had 28 points and seven assists in the last meeting with Milwaukee, which allows opponents more than 25 assists per game—including 31 assists against in the 128-115 loss to Memphis on Saturday.
PREDICTION: Chris Paul Over 25.5 points + assists (-106)
Suns vs Bucks betting card
- Phoenix +3 (-110)
- Over 233.5 (-110)
- Chris Paul Over 25.5 points + assists (-106)
Picks made on 4/19/2021 at 9:12 a.m. ET
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NBA Suns vs. Bucks picks, you could win $60.83 on a $10 bet?
Use our NBA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.