The NBA Cup Final features one of the most old-school rosters against what may be the NBA’s future. Both the New York Knicks and the San Antonio Spurs have greater aspirations than winning the in-season tournament, but they may as well win the in-season tournament on the way.
My Spurs vs. Knicks props expect a couple of past Rookie of the Year winners to set the tone tonight, though perhaps not the ones you expect.
For more NBA picks, check out Andrew Caley's Spurs vs. Knicks predictions.
Best Spurs vs Knicks props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Stephon Castle |
Over 5.5 assists | -105 |
| Victor Wembanyama |
Under 9.5 rebounds | +100 |
 Karl-Anthony Towns |
3+ 3-pointers | +200 |
Prop #1: Stephon Castle Over 5.5 assists
Last season’s Rookie of the Year struggled to move the ball in the NBA Cup semifinal, though he more than made up for it with his 22 points on 9-of-16 shooting. Stephon Castle always has an impact in a game, and more often than not, he leans on his playmaking to help that cause.
Remove the game he injured his hip flexor in mid-November (and played fewer than 16 minutes as a resut) and his first game back from that nine-game absence (five assists in 23 minutes), and Castle had cleared this prop in his other seven games leading up to that dramatic win against the Thunder. That was a clunky sentence, but its point is clear: When healthy and thus playing a full game, Castle should be trusted to set up his teammates.
Castle handing out only two assists on Saturday should not be a great concern. Oklahoma City devastates ball movement. That was an exception proving this rule of trusting Castle.
Prop #2: Victor Wembanyama Under 9.5 rebounds
Consider this a pace of play doubt more than anything else. Victor Wembanyama grabbed nine rebounds in 21 minutes in his return on Saturday. At 7-foot-4, there is even more reason than usual to be cautious with Wembanyama’s return from a calf injury. So logic does not expect Wembanyama’s workload to spike tonight simply because it is the NBA Cup Final.
And if he again plays limited minutes, a game slowed down by the New York Knicks’ preferences — the No. 2 slowest team in the NBA in the last 10 games — should mean fewer rebounding chances.
That is even more applicable when remembering the San Antonio Spurs' play slows down with Wembanyama involved. In the 12 games before his injury, the Spurs ranked No. 24 in the NBA in pace. Since Wembanyama aggravated that calf, so in 12 games without him and one with him, San Antonio ranked No. 9 in the NBA in pace.
Some of that former tendency should show up tonight, particularly in Wembanyama’s limited action.
Prop #3: Karl-Anthony Towns 3+ threes
What is the best way to limit Victor Wembanyama’s defensive impact? Pull him away from the rim. And the French big man is one of the few players in the NBA who can bother Karl-Anthony Towns' shooting motion. That may sound like a reason for Towns to avoid taking shots from deep, but it is really saying that Wembanyama will not be wasting his time if he stays within range of Towns from deep. And New York will gladly force that decision.
Expect Towns to position himself deep for most of the night, particularly when Wembanyama is on the court. Towns remains a lethal shooter from deep, even if hitting only 36.0% of his 3-pointers this season.
He has cleared this prop in seven of 24 games this season, not quite an encouraging enough rate, but one within reason of these +200 odds. Towns has hit 50% of his threes in five games in December. To help counter Wembanyama’s rim deterrence, Towns should take at least half a dozen long-range looks tonight.
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