The Western Conference Finals are tied at two games apiece because Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is willing to move the ball, not despite the two-time MVP being forced to move the ball.
Yet, it's still an unexpected approach for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
These Shai Gilgeous-Alexander odds expect Oklahoma City’s role players to be the beneficiaries of his playmaking as he combats the San Antonio Spurs’ defense in Game 5 on Tuesday, May 26.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander prop pick for Game 5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 7.5 assists (-130 at bet365)
As the Oklahoma City Thunder have lost Ajay Mitchell (out) and Jalen Williams (officially questionable, but proceed as if he is out), the ball has been in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s hands even more. And that is saying something for one of the highest-usage players in the NBA.
The flip side of that is the San Antonio Spurs can devote more defenders to Gilgeous-Alexander, as well. With respect to Cason Wallace and even Jared McCain, they are not the kind of creators or ballhandlers that force San Antonio to worry about them.
Combine those thoughts, and we have a scenario where the ball is both in SGA's hands more often and needs to get out of his hands more often. It is by San Antonio’s design that the two-time MVP has dished out at least seven assists in each game of this series, with seven actually being SGA’s low-water mark thus far.
Gilgeous-Alexander may have averaged only 6.6 assists this regular season and 7.1 through the first two rounds of this postseason, but the Spurs are forcing the issue out of SGA’s hands. If his teammates can hit some shots — more likely at home than on the road — then any number below 8.5 should be quickly bet to the Over.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander same-game parlay
Not many teams in the NBA have the perimeter defenders — not to mention the rim protection provided by one Victor Wembanyama — to force the ball out of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s hands, but the Spurs do. And in doing so, they may be providing the blueprint to remember for years to come.
Gilgeous-Alexander took 23 and 24 shots in the first two games of this series, respectively. That then plummeted to 17 and 15 in Games 3 and 4, respectively. He took just one 3-pointer in Game 4.
San Antonio will not let SGA find a clear path into the lane, and he has never been a good enough 3-point shooter to thrive with volume from beyond the arc.
The Thunder need their role players to shoot better at home than they did on the road. If they do, Oklahoma City can survive with the ball away from SGA.
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