The Sacramento Kings’ winning streak under interim head coach Doug Christie came to an end after seven games on Tuesday in Milwaukee. But Sacramento is expected to return to those winning ways against the Houston Rockets tonight, in some part because the visitors are on the second night of a back-to-back.
My Rockets vs. Kings prediction focuses on one particular Sacramento asset, one that has improved under Christie.
Get your NBA picks in before the tip at 10 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 16.
Rockets vs Kings prediction
My best bet
Malik Monk Over 2.5 threes (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
The greatest difference in the Sacramento Kings since Doug Christie took over for Mike Brown, aside from the mere joy of winning games, is their offense. Sacramento’s offensive rating in the last nine games has been 118.0, more than a bucket up from 114.4 in the season’s first 31 games.
The defense has also improved, 111.8 in rating from 112.9, but that offensive jump stands out.
That will tend to happen when your best shooter shoots more often. Since the coaching change, Malik Monk has taken 8.3 threes per game, though making just 30.3% of them. Under Brown, he was taking just 6.7 threes per game, making 35.4% of them.
Monk’s poor shooting should be chalked up as an aberration. He has shot at least 35% from deep in each of his last four seasons. His recent struggles will regress toward that mean, an encouraging suggestion.
Taking more threes will be part of that. Monk has shot at least seven times from beyond the arc in six of his eight games with Christie at the helm. Most notably, he took 11 at Boston and 12 against the Grizzlies. Those kinds of shot profiles were largely lacking while Brown set the terms.
There may be worry backing Monk tonight, a bothersome groin listing him as probable, and facing a Houston Rockets defense giving up only 34.6 looks from deep per night, the second-lowest figure in the NBA. But "probable" obviously means Monk is likely to play, and the Rockets are on the second night of a back-to-back. If fatigue shows up anywhere, it is chasing someone like Monk around the perimeter.
Rockets vs Kings same-game parlay
Malik Monk Over 2.5 threes
Domantas Sabonis Under 18.5 points
Domantas Sabonis Over 6.5 assists
The Kings’ offensive rating has climbed in part because Domantas Sabonis is shooting less. Yes, shooting less. In the mold of his father, Sabonis may be the best playmaking big man in the NBA aside from Nikola Jokic.
He was taking 13.7 field goals per game before the coaching change, a number ticking down to 13.0 since. That might not seem like much, but Sabonis taking one less shot per game is noticeable. And his scoring average has fallen 2.3 points in his nine games with Christie in the first chair on the bench, in line with the shooting change.
Meanwhile, Sabonis is moving the ball more, averaging 7.2 assists, compared to 6.0 through his first 28 games of the season. Sabonis has notched at least seven assists in seven of nine games in the last few weeks.
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Rockets vs Kings odds
Rockets vs Kings live odds
Rockets vs Kings opening odds
- Spread: Houston +2.5 | Sacramento -2.5
- Moneyline: Houston +120 | Sacramento -140
- Over/Under: Over 227 | Under 227
Odds courtesy of bet365
Rockets vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Kings were set as 2.5-point favorites on Wednesday evening, a number that climbed to just -3 before nightfall.
- The spread pushed to -4 during the night, waffling some at -3.5 on Thursday morning.
- The total opened at 227 and initially rose to 227.5 before a drop to 224.5 early on Thursday.
- The total then bounced to 226 and even 226.5 before settling at 225. To some extent, that wild movement feels like bettors being unsure how to handle Houston on the second night of a back-to-back though last night’s game in Denver was relatively stress-free.
Rockets vs Kings trend
The Rockets have played seven back-to-backs so far this season. On the second night of those, five of seven Unders have cashed. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Kings.
How to watch Rockets vs Kings
| Location: | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California |
| Date: | Thursday, 1-16-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Rockets vs Kings latest injuries
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