A new week in the NBA kicks off with some intriguing matchups across a slate of 11 games, which of course means plenty of NBA player prop bets to be found on the hardcourt.
The New York Knicks have been getting torched by the 3-ball this season — will the Indiana Pacers be the next to take advantage? And will Kyle Lowry continue to clean up the glass with some of his Miami Heat teammates on the sidelines?
Check out our NBA prop picks for Monday, November 15, as we bank on some of the NBA's best to do their thing.
NBA player props for November 15
- Myles Turner Over 1.5 Made Threes (-105)
- Kyle Lowry Over 4.5 Rebounds (-130)
- Tim Hardaway Jr. Under 14.5 Points (-105)
Picks made on 11/15/2021 at 12:24 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Hitting shots from Myles away
It’s a matchup of Eastern Conference teams trending in opposite directions as the Indiana Pacers visit the New York Knicks. The Pacers have won five of their last seven ball games while the Knicks have dropped five of their last seven.
A big problem for the Knicks to this point has been their defense. Last season, New York was one of the top defending teams in the NBA and finished the year ranked fourth in defensive rating — but that seems like a distant memory for this team as the Knicks rank 25th in defensive rating so far in 2021-22.
And the area where they have really struggled has been defending the perimeter: New York is allowing opponents to attempt the second-most shots from beyond the arc, at over 41 per contest, while ranking 25th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Now, the Knicks have to deal with a Pacers team that ranks sixth in offensive rating and is 10th in 3-point shooting percentage — and during this seven-game stretch Myles Turner has really picked up his game.
The power forward is averaging 16.9 points and 8.7 rebounds per game over that stretch, which includes him shooting 52.6 percent from deep on 5.4 attempts per game. And he has hit two or more threes in six consecutive games. Turner should get there again in this juicy matchup.
Pick: Myles Turner Over 1.5 made threes (-105 at DraftKings)
Don't go low on Lowry boards
The Miami Heat, when fully healthy, look like one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. That isn’t exactly the case right now, with Jimmy Butler nursing an ankle injury, but the Heat going out and investing in Kyle Lowry this offseason has looked like a great move.
The 35-year-old point guard still looks spry in his first season in Miami. Lowry is averaging 12.8 points and 7.0 assists per game this season — but an area of his game that has always been overlooked has been his rebounding.
Lowry averaged 5.2 rebounds per game over his last four seasons in Toronto and that is exactly his average so far with the Heat. Lowry has hauled down five or more boards in eight of his last 10 games and now gets a great matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Even Mr. Clean couldn’t help the Thunder keep up on the glass. OKC ranks 21st in the NBA in rebounding percentage and second-to-last in opponent rebounds per game. With Butler still expected to be out for Miami, that is one less mouth to feed when it comes to grabbing boards for the Heat.
That makes the Over on Lowry’s rebounding total of 4.5 look like a solid bet tonight.
Pick: Kyle Lowry Over 4.5 Rebounds (-130 at DraftKings)
Doing it the Hardaway
The Dallas Mavericks’ Tim Hardaway Jr. has been the definition of a streaky shooter this season. While the shooting guard is averaging 14.2 points per game, he has essentially been all or nothing.
In six of Hardaway’s 12 games, he has hit at least three threes and in those games, he is averaging 19.8 points per game. But in the games where he has two threes or fewer... his ppg drops all the way down to 8.5.
So if he’s hitting threes, he’ll go Over his point totals. But if not, his offensive production is lacking.
This means you can zero in on teams that are excellent at defending the 3-point line when going up against Hardaway — and tonight’s opponent, the Denver Nuggets, are one of the best in the NBA.
For starters, Denver ranks second in the Association in defensive rating and is first in scoring defense, surrendering just 98 points per game. More importantly, it ranks fourth in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, allowing teams to hit just 32.1 percent of their attempts. It doesn’t hurt that the Nuggets also allow the 10th fewest 3-point attempts per contest as well.
All of this rang true the first time these teams faced off this season, back on Oct. 29 in Denver, where the Nuggets limited Hardaway to 1 of 5 from 3-point range and he ended up with just three points. We’re betting on more of the same and for Hardaway to land below his point total in this one.
Pick: Tim Hardaway Jr. Under 14.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
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