Nuggets vs Mavericks Picks and Predictions: Defensive Showcase on Tap in Dallas

A Jamal Murray-less Nuggets team on the second half of a back-to-back bodes well for a rested Mavericks team at home on Monday night. Neither squad is putting up big numbers, so check our free NBA betting picks to see why defense comes first in Dallas.

Last Updated: Nov 15, 2021 9:49 AM ET Read Time: 3 min
Luka Doncic Dallas Mavericks NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Denver Nuggets will be looking to win their sixth in a row when they take on the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center on Monday. The Mavericks, however, are also playing some great basketball right now, as they come into this one after having won four of their last five. 

Which of these two teams will stay hot with a big victory tonight? Keep reading our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Nuggets vs. Mavericks to get a better idea. 

Nuggets vs Mavericks odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The total opened at 209 and is now as high as 210, depending on where you look, with most bettors jumping on the Over. As for the spread, the Mavericks were 4-point favorites at open and are now laying 4.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Nuggets vs Mavericks predictions

Predictions made on 11/15/2021 at 8:02 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Nuggets vs Mavericks game info

Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Date: Monday, November 15, 2021
Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports SW-Dal, Altitude, NBATV

Nuggets vs Mavericks betting preview


Nuggets: Michael Porter Jr. F (Out), Jamal Murray G (Out).
Mavericks: Maxi Kleber F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Nuggets are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games against teams with winning home records. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Mavericks.

Nuggets vs Mavericks picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

The Mavericks are surprisingly not in the Top 15 in either offensive or defensive rating, but they’re still going out there and winning games. That’s just how things go when you can keep games close and have Luka Doncic on your side down the stretch. But things have been a bit better for the Mavericks in recent weeks. Over the last five games, Dallas is sixth in the league in offensive rating and 15th in defensive rating. If the Mavs can hover in those ranges for the remainder of the year, this will be a tough team to beat. 

With Dallas playing a lot better right now, this is a tough task for a Denver team playing on the second night of a back-to-back. The Nuggets blew out the Portland Trail Blazers at the Pepsi Center on Sunday, and they now have to travel to Dallas for a meeting with a Mavericks team that hasn’t played since November 12. Jason Kidd’s squad should have extremely fresh legs and that may be enough to give it the edge it needs. 

It’s also a tall order for the Nuggets to come up with the answers they’ll need for the Mavericks’ firepower with Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray out of the lineup. Will Barton has done an unbelievable job filling in as a starter, and rookie Bones Hyland is another playmaker for the Nuggets off the bench. It’s likely not going to be enough against a team that plays very well at home, especially with Doncic kicking out to Tim Hardaway Jr. and Kristaps Porzingis, who are both capable of turning in strong offensive performances. Doncic and Porzingis combined to score 64 against the San Antonio Spurs last time out. 

Prediction: Mavericks -4.0 (-110)

Believe it or not, the Under has hit in 10 of the Nuggets' 13 games this season. Denver ranks second in the league in defensive rating and is only 18th in offensive rating. It’s quite the change from last year when the Nuggets were sixth in offense and 11th on the defensive side of things. Even Nikola Jokic, who has had some issues defensively in the past, is playing some of the best defense of his career. With that in mind, it would be somewhat surprising if this game ended up being high-scoring. 

The Mavericks are only 22nd in the league in offensive rating this season, so it’s not like they’re some high-powered group that the Nuggets will have a ton of trouble with. In fact, these teams combined to score only 181 points when they met on October 29. It’s not irrelevant that both of these teams are in the league’s Bottom 10 when it comes to pace of play, and it should be expected that the Under will come in again tonight.  

Prediction: Under 210.0 (-112)

This line is now 4.5 on most of the sportsbooks you’ll find, but you can still get this line at Mavericks -4. That’s going to be the best play you can make on this game, but you shouldn’t be too scared off by 4.5 — and buying half a point is always an option if it makes you feel better. 

Dallas has covered in two of its last three games and the team is 5-1 straight-up when playing at home this season, and the Mavericks are 3-1 against the spread when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. It also doesn’t hurt that Dallas will be looking for revenge from the last time these two played when the Mavericks were embarrassed in Denver. They’re a much better team than they showed in that flop. 

Pick: Mavericks -4.0 (-110)

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