Look who’s come crawling back.
After the basketball betting world was enamored with the madness of March for the past four days, hoops heads are hurrying back to the NBA amid a break in the Big Dance.
The Association welcomes those gamblers with open arms and a six-game slate for Monday, including a long list of player props for each contest.
Let's get started with my best NBA player prop picks for March 20.
NBA player props for March 20
Picks made on 3/20/2023 at 12:22 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
F Wit Klay Day
Thompson is 18-for-47 shooting from the field during that span (38.3%), including a 7-for-24 mark from beyond the arc. He’s put up point totals of 14, 15, and 15 in those losses, all of which finished well Under his scoring props of 23.5, 22.5, and 21.5.
However, Houston’s horrible defense is just what the doctor ordered to get the Dubs’ star back on track, and sportsbooks are offering Klay’s scoring total on the low end of the scale at 21.5 (Over -145). That's being posted despite a spread and total that paint a very pro-Warriors game script.
The Rockets rank 29th in defensive rating, and they do a piss-poor job defending the perimeter. They watch opponents take and make a ton of triples to the tune of a league-worst 14.6 3-pointers allowed on 39 attempts per game.
Before his three-game slide, Thompson was producing a stellar start to March after a career-best month in February. He averaged 25.5 points last month, and the veteran put up 23.6 points per contest in the seven games prior to his current funk.
Thompson dropped 42 points on 12-of-17 shooting from deep during his last matchup against the Rockets on Feb. 24. We’re not asking for a repeat of that effort, but there's value in buying low on Klay against a downtrodden defense.
Klay Thompson prop: Over 21.5 Points (-145)
Vucevic recently recorded 25 points and 15 rebounds against Embiid’s biggest competition for MVP, Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic. That effort started a stretch of five straight double-doubles for the Bulls’ big man.
Vucevic will get plenty of chances to grab rebounds around the rim against Embiid, with Philadelphia’s star center launching up 20 shots per game in March. While Embiid is also a constant threat to record a double-double, his rebounding efforts have been dwindling this month (8.8 per game).
As for offense, the 6-foot-10 Montenegrin has scored in double figures during 42 straight games going back to December 17. He's been averaging almost 19 points on 51.6% shooting over that span while collecting nearly 12 boards per outing.
He scored 19 points and snatched 18 rebounds during his last matchup with the Sixers, but Philly was without Embiid for that January 6 contest. Vucevic produced 23 points and 19 boards against the 76ers with Embiid in action way back on October 29.
Vucevic, who's in a contract year, is third in the Association in double-doubles with 44. He sits behind Jokic (53) and the Sacramento Kings' Domantas Sabonis (57), who Vucevic also balled out against last week (20 points and 14 rebounds).
Nikola Vucevic prop: Double-double yes (-145)
Setting The Pace
The Indiana Pacers are leaning on some role players to keep the team afloat with All-Star Tyrese Haliburton sidelined due to an ankle injury. And one of those guys rising to the occasion is third-year tweener Aaron Nesmith.
The Vanderbilt product has made the most of his extra minutes, posting 25, 22, and 15 points over the past three games while also pulling down rebound counts of six, five, and six.
Nesmith has attempted 38 field goals during those outings (12.7 per contest) after averaging just eight on the season. He also owns the hot hand from the outside, knocking down 12 of his 24 attempts from distance in those contests.
Previous to that uptick, a hip injury suffered in late February hampered his production. That also chewed into his minutes and cost him two games to begin the month. But Nesmith has had a massive impact since getting healthy, going over his points + rebounds prop in three of his last four matchups.
Monday's combo prop is set at 17.5 (Over -105). That still seems low considering his workload, increase in touches, and the level of competition.
The Pacers take on a Charlotte Hornets team in a four-game funk thanks to its turnstile defense. Charlotte ranks 26th in defensive rating during its skid and 26th in rebound rate.
Nesmith has already been enjoying success against the Hornets in 2022-23, scoring 15 points on 5-of-7 shooting and six rebounds on January 8, when Haliburton was in the lineup.
Aaron Nesmith prop: Points + Rebounds Over 17.5 -105