Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Kuz Fills It Up, Luka Torches Hollywood

The week in the NBA rolls on with a somewhat lighter schedule with just six games on the board. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of value to be found in the player prop market.

Tonight, we look for the ridiculously hot Luka Doncic to put on a show against LeBron James in the Lakers in Los Angeles and one of our favorite player props this season gets a bit of a reprieve after cooling off for a bit.

Check out our NBA player prop picks for Tuesday, March 1, as we bank on some of the NBA's best to do their thing.

NBA player props for March 1

• Kuzma Over 31.5 pts + rebs
• Looney Over 8.5 rebs
• Doncic Over 31.5 pts

Picks made on 3/1/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

Cookin' with Kuz

With Bradley Beal on the shelf for the rest of the season and Spence Dinwiddie plying his trade with the Dallas Mavericks, Kyle Kuzma is the guy for the Washington Wizards. A task he seems to like, perhaps too much at times. But that’s for another day. For now, he’ll give us some betting value as the Wizards host the lowly Detroit Pistons. 

When it comes to scoring, Kuzma averages 17.8 points per game this season, but that is up to 21.8 over his last 12 games, shooting 47.1% from the field, including 43.6% from 3-point range. But that’s not all Kuzma does.

Even before the injuries and the trades, Kuzma had become the Wizards' best rebounder as the team used a small-ball lineup for the majority of games and is pulling down 8.8 boards per game for the season. 

Kuzma has also come out flying post-All-Star break, putting up 36 points and eight rebounds against the San Antonio Spurs and followed that up with 34 points and hauling down 14 boards against the Cleveland Cavaliers. 

Now, he faces a Pistons team that looks as if it will still be working out some growing pains for the foreseeable future, particularly on the defensive end of the floor. Detroit ranks 25th in defensive rating and 28th in opponent field goal % while ranking dead last in rebounding %.

Kuzma is averaging 30.6 points + rebounds over this 12 game stretch but with the way he is playing at the moment and the matchup against the Pistons, we like him to eclipse the number of 31.5 here.

Pick: Kyle Kuzma Over 31.5 points + rebounds (-115)

Going back to Looney's well

We have spent a lot of time in this column breaking down Kevon Looney rebounds. But after a 15-game stretch where he was averaging 10.9 rebounds per game sportsbooks adjusted his rebounding prop and he promptly cooled down. But Looney’s cooling-off period has maybe given us another opportunity as the Golden State Warriors visit the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Books have dropped Looney’s rebounding total back down to a manageable 8.5 and I just can’t say no. Even with slightly shrinking board numbers, Looney is still averaging 9.5 rebounds per game over the 24-game stretch in which Draymond Green has been sidelined with a back injury.

Tonight, Looney faces a Timberwolves team that he’s had success cleaning up the glass and one struggles on the boards themselves. The T-wolves rank 23rd in the NBA in both rebounding % and opponent rebounds per game. While Looney has averaged 11.7 rebounds per game in three matchups against Minny this season, grabbing double-digit boards twice.

With the Warriors also dealing with some additional injuries, Looney should get a bit more of a run tonight, so we’re hopping back on the Looney rebounding train tonight.

Pick: Kevon Looney Over 8.5 rebounds (-105)

Hollywood Luka

Luka Doncic is showing us why he was one of the betting favorites to win the NBA MVP award heading into this season (and at +3,000 he doesn’t look like terrible value right now, to be honest). The Dallas Mavericks’ star point guard looks unstoppable and will try to put on a show when he and his teammates visit LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers.

Doncic has just been ridiculous over the last 12 games. He is almost averaging a triple-double over that span. He is putting up 34.3 points per game, shooting 47.5% from the floor and 41.7% from 3-point range. Doncic is also adding 10.1 rebounds and 9.3 assists per game over that stretch.

Now, he faces a Lakers team that just has no teeth on defense without Anthony Davis patrolling the paint. L.A. comes into this game losers of nine of their last 12 and has looked bad in their first two games coming out of the break. Over that stretch, they rank 16th in defensive rating and rank 26th in opponent guard scoring.

Now, 31.5 is a big total for Doncic but it’s a number he’s gone Over nine times in the last 11 games and now faces a struggling Lakers team who just doesn’t have the bodies to throw at him on defense at the moment. 

The one worry is that Doncic might have been out enjoying the L.A. nightlife celebrating his 23rd birthday. But I’m still betting the best celebration will be on the floor of the Crypto.com Arena. 

Pick: Luka Doncic Over 31.5 points (-105)

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