The Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers are set to square off in a pivotal Game 4 tonight, and we have a plethora of NBA player prop projections to go over — including four five-star plays.
For more NBA picks, read our comprehensive Pistons vs. Cavaliers predictions for May 11!
Pistons vs Cavaliers computer picks for Game 4
 Pistons |
 Cavaliers |
|---|---|
| Duren o13.5 points -112 |
Harden o18.5 points -125 |
| Robinson o11.5 points -112 |
Wade o3.5 points -112 |
| Harris o1.5 threes +115 |
Allen o1.5 assists +135 |
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Pistons Game 4 computer picks
Jalen Duren Over 13.5 points (-112)
Projection: 16.25 points
Our model shows a 24.55% EV edge for this play!
Jalen Duren has had a quiet series, but he's too good to be held quiet for long. He'll get plenty of run as the Detroit Pistons try to keep up with the size of the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Duncan Robinson Over 11.5 points (-112)
Projection: 13.81 points
Our model shows a 23.93% EV edge for this play!
Duncan Robinson has been spectacular for the Pistons this series, going Over this total in all three matchups. His sharpshooting will help him clear it again.
Tobias Harris Over 1.5 threes (+115)
Projection: 1.80 threes
Tobias Harris has stepped up big for Detroit in this playoff run, and his shooting is a big part why. He's banged two threes in back-to-back outings, and our projections predict he'll do it again.
Cavaliers Game 4 computer picks
James Harden Over 18.5 points (-125)
Projection: 22.63 points
This play has a 26.01% EV edge according to our model!
James Harden isn't known for his playoff heroics, but 18.5 points is a very obtainable goal. He's cleared this line in two of three against the Pistons, and he's projected for 20+ tonight.
Dean Wade Over 3.5 points (-112)
Projection: 5.44 points
This is the fourth and final five-star play, showing a 25.63% EV edge.
Dean Wade provides Cleveland with key minutes off the bench, and he normally takes two to four shots per game. He's consistent enough to hit this number with similar volume.
Jarrett Allen Over 1.5 assists (+135)
Projection: 1.82 assists
Jarrett Allen had three assists in Game 2 and finished with one in the two other games of this series. If he starts to feel the pressure from Duren, he has plenty of capable shooters to pass to.
How to watch Pistons vs Cavaliers Game 4
| Location | Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Monday, May 11, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC/Peacock |
Not intended for use in MA.
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