Pelicans vs Heat Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Injury-Ravaged Squads Try to Find Offense

With Brandon Ingram likely sidelined due to a nasty-looking injury, the Pelicans offense will run entirely through Zion Williamson against the Heat. While the big man is primed for a solid game, will it be enough to run up the overall score?

Mar 22, 2024 • 10:02 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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With their three-game win streak up in smoke, the New Orleans Pelicans will need to regroup in a hurry — and likely without all-star forward Brandon Ingram — as they visit the Miami Heat tonight.

The Heat have won three of four and are just a half-game back of the Indiana Pacers for the sixth spot in the East, which carries a guaranteed playoff berth. Miami is a 3-point favorite over the visiting Pels in the NBA odds — a team it's dominated in recent matchups.

Can NOLA bounce back after getting thumped in Orlando? Read on for my free NBA picks for Pelicans vs. Heat on Friday, March 22. 

Pelicans vs Heat odds

Pelicans vs Heat predictions

With seven wins in its last eight, New Orleans is in hot pursuit of the Los Angeles Clippers for the 4-spot in the West and home court in the Round 1 but was crushed 121-106 by the Magic on Thursday night.

A Top-10 team in scoring defense, it’s the first time in 10 games the Pelicans allowed any team to top 107 points. A Top-5 shooting team from beyond the arc, NOLA converted just six of 20 from deep while committing 19 turnovers, losing the rebound battle 40-33, and getting beat in paint points 62-54.

The Pelicans will now have to wait to see how long they might lose Brandon Ingram, who left early in the second half after a gruesome-looking hyperextension of his left knee.

Miami has injury woes of its own with four key rotation players hurting. Tyler Herro (foot), Duncan Robinson (back), and Kevin Love (heel) have all been ruled out today while Bam Adebayo (back) is listed as questionable.

The Heat are coming off a 107-104 win in Cleveland, finishing their road trip at 3-1, and are now home for the next four. Jimmy Butler led the way with 30 points, five assists, and four steals, while Terry Rozier potted 24 points.

Like New Orleans, the Heat are grinding teams down defensively, allowing teams to score just 102.1 points per game over the last seven. Unfortunately, they only have three wins in that stretch, as their offense is mustering only 100.9 points per contest, scoring 100 or less three times.

This is the second and final meeting between these teams this year, with Miami taking the first 106-95 in February. That’s seven straight wins with six covers for Miami in this head-to-head. However, there’s too much injury uncertainty to side with either team against the spread confidently.

Instead, I’ll ride with the total, as the Under has hit in eight of the last 10 matchups.

My best bet: Under 207 (-110 at DraftKings)

Pelicans vs Heat same-game parlay

Under 207

Zion Williamson Over 25.5 points

Zion Williamson scored 20 against Orlando, the first time in seven games he’s scored fewer than 23 points. He's averaging 27.2 points on a crisp 62.7% shooting over that stretch.

Last time out against the Heat, Zion was the only Pelican to break the 20-point plateau, finishing with 23 points, nine boards, and seven dimes.

With Ingram likely sitting this one, he could have a few more shot attempts than usual — which is the current norm for Zion. He’s taken at least 14 field-goal attempts in seven straight games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Pelicans vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Miami is just 3-7-0 against the spread in its last 10.
  • The Pelicans are 6-5-0 ATS playing on the second night of a back-to-back.
  • New Orleans has gone Under the total in five of its last six.
  • The Heat’s Over vs. Cleveland was their first in eight games

Pelicans vs Heat betting trend to know

New Orleans has failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games as underdogs against Eastern opponents. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Heat.

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Pelicans vs Heat game info

Location: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
Date: Friday, March 22, 2024
Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

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