Nets vs Warriors Picks and Predictions: Curry's Home Cooking

A quick look at the standings may suggest the Brooklyn Nets are the superior team tonight in the Bay area. They have a better record and a notably better net differential than the Golden State Warriors. But the defending champions appear to be playing the long game again, while the Nets are rightly worried about playoff positioning.

Golden State’s long view may include a strong showing tonight, to reassert contender status, lest anyone doubt Steph & Co.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Nets vs the Warriors on January 22, with tip set for 8:30 p.m. ET.

Nets vs Warriors best odds

Nets vs Warriors picks and predictions

The Warriors’ incentive to put together a complete game goes beyond influencing any outside perception. Since Steph Curry returned from his shoulder subluxation, Golden State has gone only 2-3 with him in the lineup and only 1-3 with both him and Klay Thompson playing.

Then again, the Warriors have gone 3-2 ATS with Steph the last few weeks, the wing occurrence coming in an overtime defeat at Boston as 6.5-point underdogs.

Steph and Klay may have made their careers together, but they have played only 26 of 46 games together this season. Given the West’s cluster around the play-in, Golden State can mess around only so much longer. At some point, it needs to assure its playoff spot and develop the rhythm needed for a playoff run. Last year’s title can carry the Warriors only so far.

Without Kevin Durant, the Nets may be the ideal opponent to flex against. Brooklyn is good enough to require Golden State to work, but not so good that a confidence-boosting showing should not be attainable.

In the five games since Durant went to the sideline, the Nets are 1-4 straight-up and 1-4 against the spread. The lone win came at Utah on Friday. All due respect to the surprising season from the Jazz, but winning in Utah does not reverse a season’s slide.

Brooklyn lost those four games by a combined 34 points. Worse yet, it fell short of the spread by 43.5 combined points. Durant supersedes all Vegas math, and devaluing the Nets appropriately is taking some time, win against the Jazz aside.

Yet, Golden State is favored by only 7.5 points tonight. Maybe three buckets comes across as a healthy margin, but let’s reiterate, Brooklyn has fallen short of the spread in four of its five games without Durant to the tune of nearly 11 points per game. Frankly, the Warriors winning by only three buckets may be a surprise tonight.

Golden State is not only better rested, but it rested its stars — to much public hand-wringing — at Cleveland on Thursday. Steph, Klay, Draymond, and the rest have not played since Monday. There will be no restrictions tonight.

A bolder individual might chase an alt line of -9.5 (+116 at FanDuel) or -10.5 (+134) and lean into Brooklyn’s inability to keep up with expectations, even reduced expectations, without Durant. But for today, this best bet will keep things simple.

My best bet: Warriors -7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Nets vs Warriors spread analysis

Further evidence of bookmakers’ diminishing faith in Brooklyn not keeping up with bettors’ abandonment of it is that this line moved a point toward Golden State after opening at -6.5 on Saturday. By midmorning on Sunday, -7.5 covered the board.

Since Steph’s return from that shoulder injury, this will be the most the Warriors have been favored by except for a -12.5 against Phoenix in his first game back (a Golden State outright loss) and a -9 against San Antonio in the next, a 31-point Warriors win.

If anything, Golden State may be finding its form again, if slowly, with this generation’s game-changer back in the lineup.

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Nets vs Warriors Over/Under analysis

The total, however, mistakenly opened as low as 234.0 on Saturday before shooting up to 236.5.

Without Durant, four of Brooklyn’s five games have gone Under the total in the last couple weeks, a stretch with an even more drastic margin than the Nets’ ATS struggles. Those four games went Under their totals by an average of 17 points. Odd, how losing one of the greatest scorers of all time so harshly impacts a team’s offense. Wait, no, that’s not odd at all.

Nets vs Warriors betting trend to know

The Under is 7-1 in Brooklyn’s last eight games. Find more NBA betting trends for Nets vs. Warriors.

Nets vs Warriors game info

Nets vs Warriors key injuries

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