Two playoff-bound squads with high-flying offenses will collide on Thursday night, with the Brooklyn Nets continuing a five-game road trip as they go to visit the Dallas Mavericks. Despite constant lineup juggling, Brooklyn has remained in the hunt for home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference, while Dallas has begun to put some distance between itself and the play-in tournament.
Here are our best free NBA betting picks and predictions for Nets vs. Mavericks on May 6 at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Nets vs Mavericks odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonBrooklyn went up at -3.5 overnight at DraftKings and got to -4.5 this morning, pulled back to -3, then late this afternoon climbed up to -4, where the line stands at 4:30 p.m. ET. It's all Nets on the point spread, at 82 percent of bets and 89 percent of money. The total moved from 233.5 to 235 to 234.5, with the Over nabbing 88 percent of bets/92 percent of dollars.
Check out the full line movement for this gameNets at Mavericks betting preview
Injuries
Nets: Chris Chiozza PG (Out), James Harden SG (Out), Spencer Dinwiddie PG (Out).
Mavericks: Kristaps Porzingis PF (Out), Maxi Kleber PF (Out), Tyrell Terry PG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between the Nets and Mavericks. Find more NBA betting trends for Nets vs. Mavericks.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
After winning four straight, the Nets dropped a disappointing home contest to the Blazers to close out April, ahead of a two-game set against fellow Eastern Conference contenders the Bucks in Milwaukee. While from a neutral perspective, those two games were fantastic, Brooklyn won't share that sentiment after losing both, 117-114 and 124-118.
The Nets' three-game losing streak straight up and against the spread has left them an even 5-5 SU and ATS in their last 10, but there is plenty of reasons for encouragement. Of course, there's the pending return of former MVP James Harden to look forward to, but the return of their other MVP, Kevin Durant, has to have the Nets feeling confident.
KD was absolutely unstoppable in both games against Milwaukee and was, for the most part, the best player on the floor even while sharing it with the reigning back-to-back MVP.
Since briefly falling into the play-in picture (and then complaining about the format, as is now a tradition for threatened teams), the Mavericks have come alive and gone a game up on the Trail Blazers, now sitting as the fifth seed with a first-round matchup with the Nuggets on deck.
Despite going 7-3 over its last 10, it has not been a simple stretch for Dallas as it has juggled further injury concerns surrounding Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic's sore elbow. The Mavs will be without Porzingis in this one, and that's bad news in a matchup that requires as much firepower as possible.
PREDICTION: Nets -4 (-110)
Over/Under pick
It's absolutely wild and a testament to the players suiting up in this game, that we can look ahead to the Nets and Mavs knowing both Porzingis and James Harden will sit out and still confidently look at the Over.
Brooklyn has remained one of the most reliable Over bets in the NBA all season long, regardless of its lineup, as it sits 37-29 O/U. The Nets are atop the league in offensive rating and offensive efficiency and are second in points per game. While they will be without one of the greatest scorers of his generation in Harden, they can lean on another all-time great in Durant — and Kyrie Irving.
While Dallas may have regressed from its record-setting heights on offense in Doncic's sophomore season, the Mavs and Luka Legend still rank in the Top 10 in offensive rating and offensive efficiency. At 4-1 O/U over their last five, Dallas is clicking on offense at just the right time, despite Doncic and Porzingis' scrapes.
With three elite offensive talents in this game, we're taking the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 233.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
In an impressive 115-98 over the Nets in February, Doncic posted 27 points on above 50 percent shooting, adding seven assists and six rebounds. There's reason to believe he can top that stat line in the second part of Brooklyn and Dallas's season series.
The Mavs had Porzingis in that one, with the finesse big man taking 13 shots. Without his running mate out there, Doncic will finish even more possessions in this one.
Plus, the first game saw Brooklyn only roll out Harden among its big three. For as incredible as Harden is, it'll be an even greater challenge for Doncic to keep pace with both Irving and Durant. As he has proven time and time again in his bright young career, Doncic will be up for the challenge.
PREDICTION: Luka Doncic Over 48.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-106)
Nets vs Mavericks betting card
- Nets -4 (-110)
- Over 233.5 (-110)
- Luka Doncic Over 48.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-106)
Picks made on 5/5/2021 at 8:35 p.m. ET
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