Thunder vs Warriors Picks: Too Many Points for Golden State?

May 6, 2021 |
By: Zachary Cohen
Thunder vs Warriors Picks: Too Many Points for Golden State?
Lu Dort is one of the few remaining bright spots on an injured and struggling Thunder team and will be tasked with trying to contain Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins tonight.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Lu Dort is one of the few remaining bright spots on an injured and struggling Thunder team and will be tasked with trying to contain Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins tonight.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors look for their third win in four games when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California on Thursday.

The Warriors, winners of two of their last three and holding on to one of the play-in spots in the West, are massive favorites for the 10:00 p.m. ET contest.

Can Oklahoma City hang around against Steph Curry and Co.? Find out with our best free NBA betting picks and predictions Thunder vs. Warriors on May 6.

Thunder vs Warriors odds

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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

Golden State hit TwinSpires' odds board as hefty 14-point chalk and is up to -14.5 at 7:15 p.m. ET. However, this point spread is drawing two-way play, with 57 percent of tickets on the Warriors and 60 percent of money on the big 'dog Thunder. The total initially moved up from 228.5 to 230, then fell back to 226, with 54 percent of tickets on the Over, but 73 percent of money on the Under. "Sharp money on the Under, once it hit 230," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Thunder at Warriors betting preview

Injuries

Thunder: Mike Muscala F (Out), Aleksej Pokusevski F (Out), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander G (Out).
Warriors: Kelly Oubre Jr. F (Questionable), James Wiseman C (Out), Eric Paschall F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as favorites. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Warriors.

Against the spread (ATS) pick

The Thunder have lost 18 of their last 19 games coming into this one, but they have covered in three of their last five. They’re playing a Warriors team that has failed to cover in four of the last six contests, and they’re getting a whole lot of points in this game, especially considering this isn’t the Golden State team that boasts four future Hall of Famers in its starting lineup. 

Steph Curry, who is averaging 39.0 points per game over his last two contests, will continue to fire up shots at a remarkable rate, and it wouldn’t be too surprising if Andrew Wiggins does the same. Wiggins is arguably in the midst of the best stretch of games in his career right now, and this isn’t exactly a tough matchup. The issue for Golden State is that the team lacks a consistent third option on the offensive end right now, and the group has also been inconsistent on the other end of the floor. 

The Thunder do have the luxury of throwing Lu Dort on one of Golden State’s top scorers, and Dort is one of the best perimeter defenders in basketball. He's the first player in the league to truly make a name for himself for how he defended James Harden, so it’s likely Oklahoma City will see what he can do on Curry. The Thunder also have Moses Brown in the paint, and Brown is coming off a 17-rebound performance against the Kings. If the Warriors play with Draymond Green at center often, Brown will dominate the glass. 

Realistically, the Warriors shouldn’t have any trouble coming away with a win in a game like this. But it’s hard to ask an average team to blow anybody out. 

PREDICTION: Thunder +14 (-110)

Over/Under pick

The Thunder have turned in some real duds defensively as of late, as they allowed 123 points against the Suns on May 2 and gave up 152 points to the Pacers the night before.

However, Oklahoma City did hold Sacramento to just 41.1 percent shooting on Tuesday, and Golden State doesn’t have the necessary firepower in its supporting cast to really light the Thunder up in this one. Oklahoma City similarly lacks the punch needed to hold its own with a high number like this one. 

PREDICTION: Under 229 (-110)

Player prop pick

Wiggins is really playing well for the Warriors right now, and his improvement could help Golden State take things to another level entering the postseason. Dort is going to spend some time on the wing, though. Wiggins has the height advantage in that matchup, but Dort has a sturdy frame and won’t let Wiggins back him down in the mid-post area.

He’s going to make Curry and Wiggins work for every basket whenever he’s switched onto either one of them, and that makes it likely that either Curry or Wiggins has trouble reaching their points total. Wiggins is the better option, as Curry is on an all-time heater. 

PREDICTION: Andrew Wiggins Under 23.0 points (-110)

Thunder vs Warriors betting card

  • Thunder +14 (-110)
  • Under 229 (-110)
  • Andrew Wiggins Under 23.0 points (-110)

Picks made on 5/06/2021 at 10:30 a.m. ET

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