The Dallas Mavericks are set to face the Oklahoma City Thunder in a regular season finale on Sunday.
The NBA odds have the Thunder favored by 17.5 points as they look to earn the No. 1 seed in the West with a win. Find out where our NBA picks lie in my Mavericks vs. Thunder predictions on April 14.
Mavericks vs Thunder predictions
My best bet
Thunder -17.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
There’s just one game left in the season and a win could help the Oklahoma City Thunder leapfrog into the top spot in the Western Conference ahead of the NBA playoffs. The Oklahoma City faithful certainly won’t be complaining that the Dallas Mavericks are set to rest both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in the finale.
Dallas is already slated to play the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round of the playoffs, and as such, this game doesn’t mean a whole lot for Jason Kidd’s squad. Despite the 17.5-point spread being colossal, without Doncic and Irving, the Mavericks are going to have one heck of a tough time keeping up with a Thunder team that’s motivated for a win.
Oklahoma City head coach Mark Daigneault is a shoo-in for NBA Coach of the Year, and that’s been led by MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. With SGA expected to play, he can push a Dallas defense that gives up the 11th most points per game (115.4) in the NBA.
At full strength, Dallas’ defense allows opponents to shoot 47.4% from the floor, 54.7% from two, and 36.8% from 3-point range — all ranking in the back half of the league. Slowing SGA and his 30.3 points per game won’t be an easy task, especially with the support around him.
Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams have been incredible assets for the Thunder this season, with both shooting better than 37% from behind the arc and combining for 35.8 points per game. These three have been impactful defenders, too. SGA leads the NBA in takeaways (2.0) and adds nearly a block per game (0.9), while Holmgren combines for 3.0 steals and blocks and Williams averages 1.7.
That disruption should hurt a Dallas team that will be without its two primary ball handlers and already ranks in the back half of the NBA in steals allowed per game (7.4). Beyond SGA, Holmgren, and Williams, Josh Giddey and Lu Dort will also create issues for the Mavericks' backups.
Oklahoma City ranks third in the NBA in offensive rating (119.4) and fifth in defensive rating (112.5). With the added motivation of competing for the No. 1 seed, this could be a tough afternoon for the shorthanded Mavs.
Mavericks vs Thunder same-game parlay (SGP)
Thunder -17.5
Over 224.5
Mixing the Over into our SGP may seem questionable with the Mavericks being down Doncic and Irving, but Dallas has enough firepower if both Tim Hardaway Jr. and P.J. Washington suit up.
Hardaway Jr. is averaging 14.6 points and 2.7 threes per game, while Washington is a solid inside presence with 11.7 points and 55.6% shooting from 2-point range. Those two should be able to add enough on top of what the Thunder stars produce offensively.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mavericks vs Thunder odds
Mavericks vs Thunder live odds
Mavericks vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +16.5 | Oklahoma City -16.5
- Moneyline: Dallas +880 | Oklahoma City -2,000
- Over/Under: Over 226.5 | Under 226.5
Mavericks vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Thunder opened at -16.5 and are now listed at either -17.5 or -18.5, depending on the book.
- While the Mavericks are 48-33 ATS this season, they will be without their two best players. Oklahoma City is right there with Dallas, entering Sunday 45-35-1 ATS.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 226.5 and has since dropped down to 225.5.
- The Thunder are the second-best Over team in the NBA this season, cashing it in 54% of their games. Meanwhile, the Mavs are just 36-44-1 when betting the Over.
Mavericks vs Thunder trend
The Thunder have covered the spread in 25 of their last 37 games at home (+11.80 Units / 29% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Thunder.
Mavericks vs Thunder game info
| Location: | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date: | Sunday, 4-14-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally SW Dallas, Bally Oklahoma |
Mavericks vs Thunder latest injuries
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