The Boston Celtics will try to extend their winning streak to six as they host the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday, but my Mavericks vs. Celtics prediction says the Under is the way to go.
Boston has one of the league's best defenses and both teams play slow, so I'm trading the Under. Read on to see all my NBA picks for Sunday, Nov. 15.
TOP PICK
Mavericks vs Celtics prediction: Under 219.5
The Boston Celtics have won five straight and are 10-2 overall. And while they're playing well on both sides of the court, the defense has led the way. Boston is allowing a league-low 103.1 ppg, is holding opponents to 41.9% shooting from the field, and is third overall in defensive rating.
The Dallas Mavericks also prefer a slower tempo, and haven't been bad defensively themselves, ranking right near the league average in points allowed (113.3 ppg) while doing a great job of keeping teams off the three-point line. Opponents are shooting just 33.2% from deep against the Mavericks, and are only making 12.2 threes per game against them.
With two teams that don't mind settling into a half-court offense and no obvious defensive issues, I see a low-scoring game today. I'm backing the Under totals as low as 217.5.
COVERS INTEL: Dallas (98.6) and Boston (98.2) each rank in the bottom right in the NBA in possessions used per game, which points to a slow-paced game.
Mavericks vs Celtics combo
In a low-scoring game, there's always some benefit to taking the underdog, as a blowout is far less likely. And with Kyrie Irving and Cooper Flagg both available and healthy, this is a lot of points to be giving Dallas, even for the Celtics. I'm backing the Mavs to cover.
Speaking of Irving, he's averaging 22.7 ppg for Dallas this season, and has scored 21+ in three of his last four contests. He's a solid value-add for combos today to score 20+ points even given the lower-scoring environment.
Mavericks vs Celtics combo
- Under 219.5
- Mavericks +14.5
- Kyrie Irving 20+ points
Mavericks vs Celtics player props
Mavericks player prop: Cooper Flagg 6+ assists
One of Flagg's most impressive traits given his age — he's still only 19 — has been his playmaking ability. He is averaging 6.4 assists per game, which ranks in the top 20 in the league, a significant improvement over the 4.5 assists per game he put up last season.
Flagg has put up at least six assists in eight of his first 12 games this season, and with Irving giving him a great scoring option when he can't get a look himself, I expect those numbers to hold going forward.
I'm trading Flagg to get 6+ assists at up to 55% tonight.
Celtics player prop: Jayson Tatum 25+ points
Jayson Tatum has had no trouble leading the Celtics on offense this season. The former No. 3 draft pick is averaging 26.3 ppg, back to the level of scoring he enjoyed before missing most of last year due to injury.
Tatum comes into tonight's game well rested, having not played since Wednesday. And while the Mavericks are fine on defense, they are just that - hovering around average in most efficiency metrics — so I have no reason to think Tatum will struggle against Dallas tonight.
I love Tatum to put up 25+ points at up to 65%.
- Top picks: 6-6, -0.24 units
- Combos: 1-11, -5.94 units
- Props: 5-7, -2.96 units
Mavericks vs Celtics odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Mavericks +13.5 | Celtics -13.5
- Over/Under: Over 219.5 | Under 219.5
- Moneyline: Mavericks 15% | Celtics 86%
Check the latest NBA odds for more on tonight's Mavericks vs. Celtics matchup.
Mavericks vs Celtics trend
The Under is 7-1 in Boston's last eight games. Find more NBA betting trends.
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How to watch Mavericks vs Celtics
| Location | TD Garden, Boston, Mass. |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 15, 2026 |
| Tip off | 6 p.m. ET |
| TV | MavsTV+, NBCS-Boston |
Mavericks vs Celtics latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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