Lakers vs Kings Picks and Predictions: Putting the Huert on L.A.

Don’t look now, but the Los Angeles Lakers have won four in a row. Left for dead when Anthony Davis suffered a stress injury in his foot, the team has scrapped together a slew of wins by riding LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, and Dennis Schröder as far as they will take them. Tonight will be a new level of challenge however, as they square off against the Sacramento Kings, rested, at home, and looking to redeem themselves for a narrow loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Lakers vs. Kings for Saturday, January 7 key in on Kevin Huerter and how he should be able to exploit a fatigued and unbalanced Los Angeles squad.

Lakers vs Kings best odds

Lakers vs Kings picks and predictions

It’s only fitting that Kevin Huerter coined the term Beam Team because his acquisition from the Atlanta Hawks in the offseason was the final piece that unlocked the one-two-punch pairing of Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox. Huerter is the kind of player that every team could use, he’s a big wing at 6-foot-7, he takes and makes 3s at a high clip, and he can do just enough with the ball in his hands that chasing him off the arc has consequences for an opposing defense.

He’s hit a real stride lately too, averaging 18 points per game on 53.3% from the field and 47.2% from deep over his last five. He and Sabonis were an instant fit on offense, and as the Lithuanian big man has become more central to the Kings' offense, Huerter’s life has gotten easier, and his production has soared.

His opponents, a Los Angeles Lakers team, wounded and playing on a back-to-back, are also uniquely ill-suited to contain his style of offense. That’s mostly because the Lakers are a wildly unbalanced team.

Outside of LeBron James and Wenyen Gabriel, they just don’t have any wings on the roster.  The team is exclusively guards and centers. Their best units are almost all platoons of at least three guards, and Darvin Ham has sometimes even opted to play four in some iterations. They bleed points as a result, but squeezing out every bit of offense from this roster is their only path to victory without Anthony Davis.

In the previous two games the Kings have played against the Lakers this season, Huerter is averaging 21 points precisely for this reason. As a movement shooter with wing size who can also work off the dribble, they simply don’t have an obvious way to match up with him. LeBron isn’t able to get over screens and using him to chase Huerter would be a waste, but nobody else has the height and footspeed to hang with Huerter, even if it wasn’t a back-to-back for the Lakers, which it is.

The Lakers might face-guard Huerter to try and at least avoid conceding an avalanche of threes, but that will open up his drives and Los Angeles has zero rim protection. That’s why I like Huerter’s points prop as the best bet on the board.

My best bet: Kevin Huerter Over 16.5 points (-104)

Lakers vs Kings spread analysis

The line for Saturday’s game has been set at Kings -8.5. That’s a gaudy spread, but understandable given that the Lakers will be on a road back-to-back against a superior team. Still, it’s strange to see a healthy LeBron James as a nearly 9-point dog to any team, let alone Sacramento. 

If the Lakers have any chance of keeping this game respectable, LeBron will once more have to spit in the face of Father Time. He’s done just that in this recent stretch, totaling 34 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 7.2 assists per game on 57.9% from the field. That’s helped the Lakers win and cover in four straight games. But it’s a bit much to expect that level of play from a 38-year-old (even the best 38-year-old ever) on zero rest.

As a team that relies on multiple key rotation players in their mid-30s and older, it’s no surprise that LA is 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games playing on 0 days’ rest. 

That should make Kings -8.5 a reasonable bet. But Sacramento has struggled to cover recently. It’s just 1-6 ATS in its last seven overall and even more distressingly 0-5 in its last five at home. Those trends make me too nervous to lay a line this large.

Lakers vs Kings Over/Under analysis

The Total for tonight’s game, 240, is the largest I’ve seen this season. Oddsmakers are banking on the overall offensive firepower of these two teams as well as their mutual aversion to defensive playmaking. 

Losing Davis meant that the Lakers lost any chance to win as a defense-first team. In his absence, they’re playing smaller and faster at every position and trying their best to limit their half-court possessions as much as possible. They’re like if the 07 Seconds or Less Suns were less talented, smaller, and backed into their playstyle out of sheer necessity. 

It’s worked for them for four straight games, but it’s hard to see them having the horses to win that way two nights in a row. Still, the Over is 8-2 in Lakers' last 10 road games.

The Kings started the season with solid defensive fundamentals even though opponents kept making shots, but they’ve let go of the rope a bit recently. They’ve allowed a 120.6 defensive rating over their last six games, which would be dead last in the NBA over the course of a full season. They seem to get into shootouts with inferior teams a lot, which has contributed to the Over cashing in the last four games they’ve played against teams with a losing record. 

The Kings and Lakers are both in the Top 5 in pace, the Kings because it’s the stylistic preference of Fox and Sabonis, the Lakers because they’re utterly futile in the half-court. The trends all point to the Over on this one, but I’m skeptical that Los Angeles will have enough left in the tank to push this score north of 240.

Lakers vs Kings betting trend to know

Lakers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on zero days’ rest. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Kings.

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