The Denver Nuggets have emerged as the leaders in the 2026 NBA Cup odds on Polymarket, one of our top prediction market apps.
Denver tops the board at 41%, just ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder (38%), while the Detroit Pistons (29%) round out the top three.
With the new NBA season officially underway, we're breaking down the latest Emirates NBA Cup odds, tournament schedule, and group-stage matchups to watch.
2026 NBA Cup odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Team |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Nuggets |
41% |
 Thunder |
38% |
 Pistons |
29% |
 Lakers |
14% |
 Clippers |
15% |
 76ers |
15% |
 Spurs |
15% |
 Knicks |
14% |
 Celtics |
13% |
 Warriors |
12% |
 Raptors |
12% |
Odds last updated on 10-21. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $25 trading bonus when you deposit at least $10 as a new user.
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2026 NBA Cup favorite
Denver Nuggets (41%)
Denver leads the NBA Cup market at 41%, edging OKC for the top spot. The Nuggets will compete in West Group A alongside Houston, Phoenix, Dallas, and Utah.
Denver's biggest advantage is Nikola Jokic, whose combination of elite scoring, rebounding, and playmaking makes the Nuggets one of the toughest teams in the NBA to defend. With the former MVP orchestrating the offense and capable of taking over games himself, Denver has the superstar talent to navigate group play and make a deep tournament run.
2026 NBA Cup prediction
Oklahoma City Thunder (38%)
The Thunder showed why they're among the NBA Cup favorites with a convincing 116-104 victory over the Spurs in their season-opening clash.
With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the offense, Chet Holmgren anchoring the defense, and one of the league's deepest supporting casts, OKC has all the pieces to finally break through and snag an NBA Cup trophy.
NBA Cup groups
The league's 30 teams will all compete in randomly drawn groups for the opening round, divided by conference, as listed below:
| East Group A | East Group B | East Group C |
|---|---|---|
| DET (0-0) |
NYK (0-0) |
BOS (0-0) |
| TOR (0-0) |
 CLE(0-0) |
 ATL(0-0) |
 ORL(0-0) |
PHI (0-0) |
 CHA(0-0) |
 MIL(0-0) |
 MIA(0-0) |
 CHI(0-0) |
 BKN(0-0) |
 IND(0-0) |
 WAS(0-0) |
| West Group A | West Group B | West Group C |
|---|---|---|
| DEN (0-0) |
OKC (0-0) |
SAS (0-0) |
 HOU(0-0) |
 MIN(0-0) |
LAL (0-0) |
 PHO(0-0) |
LAC (0-0) |
 POR(0-0) |
 DAL(0-0) |
 NOP(0-0) |
GSW (0-0) |
 UTAH(0-0) |
 MEM(0-0) |
 SAC(0-0) |
🥇: Group winner
🥈: Wild Card
NBA Cup explained
Group Play
Each team will begin the tournament in one of six groups, divided by conference and randomly drawn from tiers based on the previous season's record, to ensure relative competitive balance.
Within each group, all teams will play regular-season games against each other on designated Tournament Nights from October 30 to November 27: Every Friday and also Tuesday, Nov. 24, and Wednesday, Nov. 25.
The records in those games determine who advances to the Knockout Round.
Knockout Round
The Knockout Round is comprised of eight teams, which begins on December 4-5:
- The winners of each of the six groups
- A wild-card team from each conference (the second-place team with the best record)
The Knockout Round is a single-elimination bracket. Teams in each conference with the best record will get home-court advantage in these matchups.
The semifinals and finals take place at Hinkle Fieldhouse on December 8 and 11, with the winner of each conference facing off for the NBA Cup.
Teams that make the knockout round will be awarded portions of an as-of-yet undisclosed prize pool, increasing the further they make it. A Tournament MVP and All-Tournament Team will also be awarded after play has concluded.
