The Spurs have taken over as the favorites in the 2026 NBA Cup odds on Polymarket, one of our top prediction market apps, sitting at 19% to win the tournament.
The East-leading Celtics have climbed to second at 15%, ahead of the Pistons (10%), while the Thunder are still in the mix at 9% despite major injuries to Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Cason Wallace.
With the new NBA season well underway, we're breaking down the latest Emirates NBA Cup odds, tournament schedule, and group-stage matchups to watch.
2026 NBA Cup odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Team |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Spurs |
19% |
 Celtics |
15% |
 Pistons |
10% |
 Thunder |
9% |
 Warriors |
7% |
 Rockets |
7% |
 Knicks |
7% |
 Nuggets |
6% |
 Timberwolves |
6% |
 Heat |
5% |
 76ers |
5% |
 Lakers |
4% |
 Trail Blazers |
4% |
Odds last updated on 11-11. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $25 trading bonus when you deposit at least $10 as a new user.
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2026 NBA Cup favorite
San Antonio Spurs (19%)
The San Antonio Spurs have won nine straight games since starting the season with back-to-back losses to the Thunder and Rockets.
Victor Wembanyama has made another leap, now averaging 30/12 on nearly 53% shooting, and the Spurs kicked off Group C action with a 124-109 win over the Trail Blazers.
2026 NBA Cup prediction
| Prediction | Odds | Pick date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder |
32% | Oct. 21 | 1 |
The Thunder showed why they're among the NBA Cup favorites with a convincing 116-104 victory over the Spurs in their season-opening clash.
With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the offense, Chet Holmgren anchoring the defense, and one of the league's deepest supporting casts, OKC has all the pieces to finally break through and snag an NBA Cup trophy.
NBA Cup groups
The league's 30 teams will all compete in randomly drawn groups for the opening round, divided by conference, as listed below:
| East Group A | East Group B | East Group C |
|---|---|---|
| DET (1-0) |
 CLE(1-0) |
BOS (2-0) |
 ORL(1-0) |
MIA (1-0) |
 ATL(1-0) |
 TOR(1-1) |
PHI (1-1) |
 WAS(1-1) |
 MIL(0-1) |
NYK (0-1) |
 CHI(0-1) |
 BKN(0-1) |
 IND(0-1) |
 CHA(0-2) |
| West Group A | West Group B | West Group C |
|---|---|---|
 DAL(2-0) |
MIN (2-0) |
GSW (1-0) |
| DEN (1-0) |
OKC (1-0) |
SAS (1-0) |
| HOU (0-1) |
 NOP(0-1) |
LAL (1-1) |
 PHO(0-1) |
 LAC(0-1) |
POR (0-1) |
 UTAH(0-1) |
 MEM(0-1) |
 SAC(0-1) |
NBA Cup explained
Group Play
Each team will begin the tournament in one of six groups, divided by conference and randomly drawn from tiers based on the previous season's record, to ensure relative competitive balance.
Within each group, all teams will play regular-season games against each other on designated Tournament Nights from Oct. 30 to Nov. 27: Every Friday and also Tuesday, Nov. 24, and Wednesday, Nov. 25.
The records in those games determine who advances to the Knockout Round.
Knockout Round
The Knockout Round is comprised of eight teams, which begins on Dec. 4-5:
- The winners of each of the six groups
- A wild-card team from each conference (the second-place team with the best record)
The Knockout Round is a single-elimination bracket. Teams in each conference with the best record will get home-court advantage in these matchups.
The semifinals and finals take place at Hinkle Fieldhouse on Dec. 8 and 11, with the winner of each conference facing off for the NBA Cup.
Teams that make the knockout round will be awarded portions of an as-of-yet undisclosed prize pool, increasing the further they make it. A Tournament MVP and All-Tournament Team will also be awarded after play has concluded.
