The Denver Nuggets are off to an unbeaten start at Ball Arena, and tonight they’ll face a Miami Heat team that they’ve dominated in recent matchups.
Denver has won seven in a row against Miami, but my Heat vs. Nuggets predictions expect Erik Spoelstra’s squad to hang tough, especially with Norman Powell quickly settling in as a key scorer.
Read more in my NBA picks for Wednesday, November 5.
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Heat vs Nuggets prediction
Heat vs Nuggets best bet: Norman Powell Over 20.5 points (-110)
We’re seeing an offensive overhaul from the Miami Heat this season, and Norman Powell has embraced a starring role alongside Bam Adebayo. With Tyler Herro sidelined, there’s a lot of volume up for grabs, and Powell can fill in the blanks as a 3-point sniper and an aggressive driver.
Returning from a groin injury, the former Clipper dropped 21 points on his old team earlier this week, and he’s gone past this O/U number in three of his four outings this season, while also making 52% of his triples.
Miami ranks third in the NBA with 123.9 ppg and has already cleared the 140-point mark twice. While the Denver Nuggets have generally been stingy defensively, the Sacramento Kings scored 124 points in Mile High City on Monday, and their wing scorers led that charge.
Powell, who averaged 21.8 ppg last year, is very familiar with this Nuggets team after facing Nikola Jokic and Co. in the first round of last season’s playoffs, and the Heat will need his offensive spark tonight as they wrap up a four-game road trip.
Pencil Powell in for an uptick in minutes and shots, plus some trips to the free-throw line, where he boasts a 91% mark through four games.
Heat vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Though Denver has had Miami’s number lately, this spread feels too high. Two of the Heat’s last three losses at Ball Arena came by six points or fewer, and the visitors are 5-2 ATS this season.
Jamal Murray is expected to play tonight, but I’m fading his points prop. He’s been hampered by a calf issue and went 6-for-17 against Sacramento on Monday, so it could be a night for Jokic and the Nuggets to lean on Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun instead.
Heat vs Nuggets SGP
- Norman Powell Over 20.5 points
- Heat +9.5
- Jamal Murray Under 21.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: Big Bam Theory
Adebayo’s attempts from downtown ballooned to 221 last season, yet he’s on pace to breeze past that total after firing up 45 through seven games.
Give him credit, though. Adebayo's making them at a 36% clip, and he’s knocked down 2+ triples in three of his past four contests.
Heat vs Nuggets SGP
- Norman Powell Over 20.5 points
- Heat +9.5
- Jamal Murray Under 21.5 points
- Bam Adebayo Over 1.5 threes
Heat vs Nuggets odds
- Spread: Heat +8.5 (-115) | Nuggets -8.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Heat +260 | Nuggets -325
- Over/Under: Over 240.5 (-110) | Under 240.5 (-110)
Heat vs Nuggets betting trend to know
The Over is 7-3 in Miami's last 10 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Heat vs Nuggets
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date | Wednesday, November 5, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN Sun, ALT |
Heat vs Nuggets latest injuries
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