Bam Adebayo o3.5 Total Assists (-110)
Bam Adebayo’s assists prop is set at 3.5 (-110) for the Over at BetMGM, and I see value at that number — I think it should be closer to -135. The Heat will look to make Nikola Jokić work defensively on Wednesday, and with Adebayo spending more time on the perimeter this season, expect him to initiate plenty of actions designed to tire Jokić out. Adebayo’s improved ball-handling and willingness to shoot from deep have opened up the lane, creating more opportunities for easy assists to teammates cutting to the rim.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. o11.5 Points Scored (-105)
Jaime Jaquez Jr.’s points total is set at 11.5 (-105) on DraftKings, and at that price, I’m taking the Over. I think it should be closer to -170. Jaquez has struggled in two of his last three games against the Spurs and Clippers, but that’s not too surprising — both teams have elite rim protectors in Victor Wembanyama and Ivica Zubac, and Jaquez does most of his work in the paint. The Nuggets, on the other hand, don’t offer that same level of interior defense with Nikola Jokić, so this sets up as a great bounce-back spot for Jaquez.
Norman Powell o20.5 Points Scored (-102)
We’re seeing an offensive overhaul from the Heat this season, and Powell has embraced a starring role alongside Bam Adebayo. With Tyler Herro sidelined, there’s a lot of volume up for grabs, and Powell can fill in the blanks as a 3-point sniper and an aggressive driver. Returning from a groin injury, the former Clipper dropped 21 points on his old team earlier this week, and he’s gone past this O/U number in three of his four outings this season, while making 52% of his triples.
Offensive rebounds save possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 5thworst in in the league with a mere 9.8 offensive rebounds per game since the start of last season.
When it comes to 3-point shots, the Heat's stellar 37.1% rate of drained threes measures as the 7th-most in the league since the start of last season.
When it comes to 3-point shots, the Heat's stellar 37.1% rate of drained threes measures as the 7th-most in the league since the start of last season.
The Nuggets check in as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league on their home court since the start of last season. This year when they are on their home court, the opposition's starting SFs have tallied 5.8 3-point attempts per game (3rd-highest in the league) against the Miami Heat, branding this as a favorable matchup. Over the last 5 games, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 6.0 foul shots per game (3rd-most in the league) against the Miami Heat, making it fairly effortless to get to the foul line.
The Nuggets check in as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league on their home court since the start of last season.
The Denver Nuggets check in as the least aggressive offense in the NBA since the start of last season in terms of shot attempts from downtown.
The Nuggets check in as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league on their home court since the start of last season.
When it comes to 3-point shots, the Heat's stellar 37.1% rate of drained threes measures as the 7th-most in the league since the start of last season.
The Denver Nuggets check in as the least aggressive offense in the NBA since the start of last season in terms of shot attempts from downtown. Over the last 10 games, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (2nd-lowest in the league) against the Miami Heat, facing an uphill battle to draw fouls.
When it comes to 3-point shots, the Heat's stellar 37.1% rate of drained threes measures as the 7th-most in the league since the start of last season. The matchup vs. Denver may be a favorable one for getting to the charity stripe; opposing starting PGs have attempted a monstrous 6.2 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Nuggets are playing at home (3rd-most in the NBA).
When it comes to 3-point shots, the Heat's stellar 37.1% rate of drained threes measures as the 7th-most in the league since the start of last season.
The Nuggets check in as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league on their home court since the start of last season. This year, the other team's starting SGs have totaled 6.3 three attempts per game (most in the NBA) against the Heat, branding this as a good matchup.
Simone Fontecchio has gone over 6.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.
Tim Hardaway Jr. has gone over 8.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.
Jonas Valanciunas has gone over 6.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.
Bruce Brown has gone over 6.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.
Nikola Jovic has gone over 8.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.
Dru Smith has gone over 4.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.
Kel'el Ware has gone over 7.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.
Miami Trends
Denver Trends| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | sprality777 | 8-2-0 | +10000 |
| 2 | vulkai0813 | 6-4-0 | +8950 |
| 3 | CRS | 5-4-1 | +6850 |
| 4 | Aitch | 9-0-1 | +6100 |
| 5 | LatinoGambler | 5-4-1 | +5500 |
| 6 | teslaxyz | 6-3-1 | +5350 |
| 7 | Geo Lazos | 4-5-1 | +5050 |
| 8 | AMERSPORTSREPORT | 7-2-1 | +4900 |
| 9 | boedad | 7-2-1 | +4850 |
| 10 | lenny2098 | 7-3-0 | +4800 |
| All Heat Money Leaders | |||
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ASkinsFanInDixi | 9-1-0 | +10300 |
| 2 | moneyformo | 6-4-0 | +9550 |
| 3 | aerison12 | 7-3-0 | +9000 |
| 4 | proliner55 | 5-5-0 | +9000 |
| 5 | JamesGang | 8-2-0 | +8880 |
| 6 | rhinorey | 8-2-0 | +8800 |
| 7 | Hotstuff1301 | 7-3-0 | +8700 |
| 8 | CHEOAPONTE | 7-3-0 | +8150 |
| 9 | reddog6008 | 6-4-0 | +8100 |
| 10 | JFT1010 | 5-5-0 | +8050 |
| All Nuggets Money Leaders | |||
