The banged-up Miami Heat limp into TD Garden this afternoon, facing an uphill task against the Boston Celtics in a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals.
With Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier both out and Duncan Robinson playing through a back injury, the Heat found a way past the Chicago Bulls in Friday’s play-in contest.
However, Boston is a heavy favorite in the latest NBA odds after a 64-18 regular season, including a 37-4 mark at home. I break down the key betting angles for this Game 1 matchup in my free NBA picks and Heat vs Celtics predictions.
Heat vs Celtics predictions
My best bet
Bam Adebayo Over 21.5 points + assists (-113 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Just when you thought the Miami Heat couldn’t possibly ask for more from Bam Adebayo, a new wave of injuries has left the Miami All-Star with an even bigger burden on both ends of the floor.
Jimmy Butler’s absence is a crushing blow for the visitors’ hopes of another underdog playoff run, but it’s not in the Heat’s DNA to hang their heads. I see Adebayo responding with a do-it-all performance, as an offensive focal point alongside Tyler Herro.
He scored 19+ points in his three contests against the Boston Celtics this season, including a 27-point effort in an early-season clash — and I like the Over on his points + assists prop here.
Miami is desperately short of shot creators without Butler and Rozier — and with Jrue Holiday or Derrick White attached to Herro, the offense could tilt even more toward Adebayo as the playmaker.
I expect Bam to have steady touches at the elbow, looking for shooters or cutters. Plus, this line is low enough that he could get there with his scoring alone if he finds a rhythm early.
On paper, this feels like a glaringly lopsided series, but the Heat never know when they’re beaten. I see the game being close enough that Adebayo gets at least his regular minutes — and turns that into an impressive stat line.
Heat vs Celtics same-game parlay (SGP)
Bam Adebayo Over 21. 5 points + assists
Under 209
Jayson Tatum Over 8.5 rebounds
Adebayo has already suggested that this series will be played in the mud, and it’s fair to wonder how the Heat are going to score consistently against a rock-solid Boston defense. I like the Under this afternoon, with Miami trending in that direction over the course of the season — it hit in 45 of their 82 games.
With the Heat trying to patch together a cohesive offense and the Celtics potentially needing a couple of quarters to rev up after coasting down the stretch, the Under is very much in play again, especially since these teams know each other so well.
I’m also expanding my SGP with the Over on Jayson Tatum’s rebounds. His numbers on the boards have dipped lately, but this is set to be a physical series and Boston will need Tatum’s size when Kristaps Porzingis is dragged out of the paint.
He had 10 boards in his last matchup against Miami and I see him bringing that same energy this afternoon.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Heat vs Celtics odds
Heat vs Celtics live odds
Heat vs Celtics opening odds
- Spread: Miami +13 | Boston -13
- Moneyline: Miami +620 | Boston -1,000
- Over/Under: Over 208.5 | Under 208.5
Heat vs Celtics spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Celtics have won all three meetings this season, including a 143-100 victory in January.
- A 14-point spread speaks volumes for the gulf in available talent, and that line has inched up after opening at 13 at some sportsbooks.
- Four Celtics are listed as questionable on the injury report, but all are expected to play.
- The Under has hit in four of the Heat’s past six contests — and it was a winning ticket in the last four games of their 2023 playoff series.
- While Boston finished the regular season with the second-highest points per game mark. I’m counting on Erik Spoelstra to dial up different schemes and a lot of zone defense.
Heat vs Celtics trend
The Heat have only gone Over the first-half total in in 39 of their last 100 contests. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Celtics.
Heat vs Celtics game info
| Location: | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Sunday, 4-21-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Heat vs Celtics latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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