Grizzlies vs Trail Blazers Picks and Predictions: Bosnian Bear Terrorizes Grizz

The Memphis Grizzlies look to rebound from a two-game skid tonight as they visit the scorching-hot Portland Trail Blazers, who sit second in the West early at 5-1. 

Both teams have been weathering some early injuries, and Portland will face its most costly one with MVP-caliber guard Damian Lillard sitting this one out.

Can the rest of the squad step up in his absence? Find out with our NBA picks and predictions for Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers.

Grizzlies vs Trail Blazers best odds

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Grizzlies vs Trail Blazers picks and predictions

With Lillard sidelined, the rest of the Blazers starters will need to assume larger roles to keep pace with a high-octane Grizzlies offense. One such player is Jusuf Nurkic, who's coming off a 27-point, 15-rebound demolition of the Rockets with Lillard out.

Nurk's points + rebounds total sits at 26.5 tonight, a number he could easily eclipse given several factors. 

First is his season-long baseline of 25.5 combined points and rebounds, putting him not that far off the number by default. Then factor in Dame's absence, which foists the league's seventh-highest usage rate on the rest of the team.

And Nurk is likely to see more than the lion's share of those extra touches against Memphis' dead-last-ranked defense. With renowned pest Dillon Brooks in Anfernee Simons' jersey all night, the Blazers are likely to feed their center against a unit that ranks in the Bottom 10 in opponent paint points and could be without Steven Adams, the only active Grizzly with anywhere close to the size to romp with Nurkic.

We can get this market relatively unjuiced and a number of scenarios could lead to it cashing. Fire away. 

My best bet: Jusuf Nurkic Over 26.5 points + rebounds (-115)

Grizzlies vs Trail Blazers spread analysis

Grizzlies backers have had a roller-coaster ride so far this season, alternating inspiring performances with absolute duds.

This team is sorely missing Jaren Jackson Jr.'s dynamic rim protection, sitting dead last in the league with a 119.5 defensive rating. It can still score with any team on any night (Morant has been nothing short of unguardable), but looks every bit as disorganized defensively as the beginning of last season.

The rate at which Memphis is conceding buckets essentially allows any team to stay in the game, and the Blazers have a somewhat-competent triad of Simons, Nurkic, and Jerami Grant to punish Memphis for its laziness. Nurkic will be of particular concern if Adams sits tonight, leaving the Grizzlies paper-thin up front with only a few undersized bodies to rumble with the 7-foot bruiser.

There's too much potential variance in this line for me to be crazy about it though. While I expect points from both sides, the Grizz simply have had too wide a range so far. It wouldn't shock me if they came out with renewed focus after the trick of poor shooting and ball movement they gave bettors on Halloween. I, likewise, wouldn't be surprised if they served the Blazers 120 points on a silver platter and lost outright.

Especially with so much injury uncertainty (the molten-hot Desmond Bane is also questionable for tonight), I feel like there are too many potential outcomes here for a spread that's set fairly competitively. This spread's a pass for me. 

Grizzlies vs Trail Blazers Over/Under analysis

The total isn't entirely thrilling either. With Lillard sitting and Bane possibly joining him, it saps lots of ammunition from a potential firefight.

While Memphis' crappy defense is no doubt baked into this line to a large extent, the 226.5 total might still be underestimating just how much potential there is for scoring. 

The Grizzlies allow 121.4 points per game and have only fallen below this total — by a single point — in one game so far this season. It's clear that their early-season M.O. is to just flat-out outscore their opponents. While Taylor Jenkins will instill some discipline on D eventually, it's unlikely to be the focus after Memphis shot 41% from the field and had more turnovers than assists in its last outing.

Portland doesn't have a ton of proven offensive depth, but Simons can easily go off tonight, and Memphis' defense can make anyone look like a competent scorer. 

This is far from a must-bet for me, but I'd hop on the Over if forced.

Grizzlies vs Trail Blazers betting trend to know

The Over is 6-1-1 in Portland's last eight games playing on three or more days of rest. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers.

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