With just three weeks left in the season, every win matters in the tightly-bunched and highly-competitive Western Conference.
The Minnesota Timberwolves (sans Anthony Edwards) host Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets, and my Rockets vs. Timberwolves predictions expect KD to stay hot after his 40-point eruption against the Chicago Bulls.
Here are my best free NBA picks for this heavyweight tilt on Wednesday, March 25.
Rockets vs Timberwolves prediction
Rockets vs Timberwolves best bet: Kevin Durant Over 26.5 points (-110)
Kevin Durant is averaging 24.2 points per game at home, but he’s scoring 27.7 on the road this season. The Slim Reaper has scored 27+ in 31 of 68 games, reaching that mark in 18 of 33 road contests.
Durant went through a dip in scoring, averaging just 20.3 points in a three-game span while facing the Atlanta Hawks, Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers. Over his last two games, Durantula is back on track offensively with scoring totals of 27 and 40.
Houston’s superstar forward recently passed Michael Jordan on the all-time scoring list. Remarkably, Durant ranks fifth in scoring but just 13th in field goal attempts, highlighting his elite efficiency.
Over his last 10 games, Durant has shot 58.1% from the floor and 46% from beyond the arc. He can be effective against a formidable Minnesota defense even if the team limits his shot attempts.
Durant has found success against the Minnesota Timberwolves in recent matchups. Across his last five regular-season tilts with the Wolves, he’s averaged 30.4 points and scored 27+ three times, including a 39-point performance in his first meeting of 2025-26.
I expect Durant to stay hot on the road in a primetime matchup with major playoff implications.
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Rockets vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Houston is just 1-6 ATS across its last seven games, while Minnesota has covered in three of four without Anthony Edwards. Edwards is out again, and Ayo Dosunmu is banged up with a calf injury.
The Houston Rockets should be desperate for a win after an embarrassing loss to the Chicago Bulls, and I’ll take them to win by at least a bucket on the road against a banged-up Wolves team.
Both teams have struggled offensively across their last 10 games. In that span, the Wolves rank 22nd in scoring (114 PPG), and the Rockets rank 26th at 111.1 PPG.
Both defenses are above average and play a physical brand of basketball, and buckets may come at a premium in this dogfight.
Rockets vs Timberwolves SGP
- Kevin Durant Over 26.5 points
- Rockets -1.5
- Under 224
Our "from downtown" SGP: No Bones About It
Bones Hyland has scored 15+ points in four straight games without Anthony Edwards while averaging 20 in that span. He's only averaged 2.4 assists for his career, but he's averaged four helpers in three starts and 3.8 dimes in nine games with 25+ minutes.
With Ayo Dosunmu banged up, Bones could have the ball in his hands a lot tonight.
Durant will understandably see plenty of defensive attention from Minnesota, and he'll need to find his teammates for open looks when the double-team comes.
He's recorded 5+ assists in four of his last seven games, and he dished seven dimes against the Wolves in his first meeting.
Rockets vs Timberwolves SGP
- Kevin Durant Over 26.5 points
- Bones Hyland Over 14.5 points
- Kevin Durant Over 4.5 assists
- Bones Hyland Over 3.5 assists
Rockets vs Timberwolves odds
- Spread: Houston -1.5 (-110) | Minnesota +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Houston -125 | Minnesota +105
- Over/Under: Over 224 (-110) | Under 224 (-110)
Rockets vs Timberwolves betting trend to know
The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 35 games at home (+13.75 Units / 34% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Rockets vs Timberwolves
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Wednesday, March 25, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Rockets vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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