The San Antonio Spurs will look to stave off elimination when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 6 tonight.
San Antonio is currently a 3.5-point favorite ahead of tip-off, and our Covers experts have you set with their best NBA picks for Thursday, May 28.
Thunder vs Spurs Expert Picks Tonight
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Jon Metler:  Fox o14.5 points |
-113 |
 Jason Logan: Wembanyama o12.5 rebounds |
-112 |
 Joe Osborne: Over 219.5 |
-110 |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
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Jon Metler's expert pick: De'Aaron Fox Over 14.5 points
Price: -113 at bet365
You can say what you want about De'Aaron Fox as a bettor, but I’m not passing on Over 14.5 points in this spot. The San Antonio Spurs are facing elimination at home, and this will already be Fox’s fourth game back from injury.
That matters because his minutes have been managed carefully all season, and we still haven’t really seen his full workload in this series due to multiple blowouts. Tonight will be different.
With the Spurs favored by only 3.5 points against the Oklahoma City Thunder, this could be the most competitive game Fox has played since returning, and that’s where his value rises. In close games, his usage climbs, the ball stays in his hands late, and his scoring ceiling increases dramatically.
This feels like a spot where San Antonio leans heavily on Fox offensively, and I price him closer to -215 to clear this total.
Jason Logan's expert pick: Victor Wembanyama Over 12.5 rebounds
Price: -112 at bet365
Victor Wembanyama amassed a billion rebounds in the first two games of the series, but since then, he’s recorded a total of only 18 boards on 43 combined rebounding chances across the past three outings.
The biggest difference is Wemby’s aggressiveness on the offensive glass. He stacked 14 offensive boards in the opening two games of the WCF but has pulled down only four rebounds on the offensive end over the last three showings.
Wembanyama has looked tired and is playing too passively at times, especially in Game 5. The Spurs are begging their big man to be more aggressive in Game 6, and that means getting inside and crashing the offensive glass for putbacks.
Game 6 models range from 12.3 rebounds to 15.5, with most projections sitting north of his current total.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Over 219.5
Price: -110 at bet365
This pick still comes down to pace. Both teams have a shot volume in the first five games almost identical to their regular-season averages, and that’s been driving scoring throughout the series.
San Antonio put up 114 points in Game 5 despite shooting below their standard, thanks to generating 92 shot attempts. Back at home, I’d expect better efficiency from the Spurs, especially if they continue to get lots of quality looks.
On the other side, Oklahoma City has topped 120 points in three of the last four games. The Spurs have also gone Over in nine of their last 10 games, with those contests averaging 227.4 combined points.
More Thunder vs Spurs Game 6 picks
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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