Our NBA player prop projections are back for tonight’s primetime showdown between the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder, and the model has already highlighted several intriguing opportunities.
After breaking down the data and lining up our projections against the current market numbers, a few spots stand out as offering the strongest betting value.
These Celtics vs. Thunder predictions aren’t built on gut instinct — they’re driven by the data.
If you’re building your betting card, these are the model’s top NBA picks for Thursday, March 12.
Celtics vs Thunder computer picks for March 12
 Celtics |
 Thunder |
|---|---|
| Brown u26.5 points -115 |
Holmgren o15.5 points -105 |
| Queta o8.5 rebounds -130 |
Gilgeous-Alexander u7.5 assists -110 |
| White u5.5 assists -105 |
Dort u2.5 3-pointers -180 |
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout!
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review!
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Celtics computer picks
Jaylen Brown Under 26.5 points (-115)
Projection: 24.5 points
The Boston Celtics enter this matchup as the second-lowest scoring offense in the league over their last five road games.
Boston has also played at the slowest pace in the NBA this season, a factor that could limit scoring opportunities for Jaylen Brown.
That slower tempo has contributed to Brown falling short of his scoring line in seven of his last 10 games when the prop has been set at 25.5 points.
Neemias Queta Over 8.5 rebounds (-130)
Projection: 9.8 rebounds
The Celtics rank sixth in offensive rebounding on the road this season, with Neemias Queta doing much of the work on the glass.
Queta has gone Over his 8.5-rebound line in five of his last 10 games and has another strong chance to clear that number tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Derrick White Under 5.5 assists (-125)
Projection: 5.5 assists
With the Thunder playing at the ninth-slowest pace in the NBA over their last 10 home games, the number of possessions could be limited for the Celtics.
That slower tempo may create a ripple effect for Derrick White, potentially putting pressure on his assists prop due to fewer playmaking opportunities.
Thunder computer picks
Chet Holmgren Over 15.5 points (-105)
Projection: 15.6 points
The Thunder rank as the third-highest scoring offense in the league this season, a trend that could benefit Chet Holmgren.
Holmgren has cleared his 15.5-point line in four of his last 10 games and gets another favorable opportunity to push past that number in OKC’s high-powered offense.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 7.5 assists (-110)
Projection: 6.6 assists
The Celtics have operated at the slowest pace in the league this season, a style that could limit overall possessions for OKC.
With fewer opportunities to create, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander may find it tougher to rack up assists against the surging Celtics, especially after going Under his 7.5-assist line in four of his last 10 games.
🔥 Bet gilgeous-alexander Now at bet365!
Luguentz Dort Under 2.5 3-pointers (-180)
Projection: 2.1 3-pointers
Lu Dort has struggled to consistently clear his 3-point line lately, hitting the Under in eight of his last 10 games when the number has been set at 2.5 made threes. His primary responsibility leans heavily toward defense and spacing the floor rather than high-volume perimeter scoring.
That challenge becomes even steeper against the Celtics, one of the league’s most disciplined perimeter defenses.
Boston’s defensive scheme excels at running shooters off the arc and limiting clean catch-and-shoot looks, forcing secondary options like Dort to put the ball on the floor instead of firing away from deep.
How to watch Celtics vs Thunder tonight
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Thursday, March 12, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
