Cavaliers vs Knicks Picks and Predictions: Randle Can't Find Rhythm at MSG

Julius Randle has certainly improved from his awful season last year, but his 24.5 point total seems a little too high. Our NBA betting picks are fading Randle tonight and banking on Cleveland's big men to lock him up.

Last Updated: Jan 24, 2023 12:56 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Julius Randle New York Knicks NBA
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The Cleveland Cavaliers head to historic Madison Square Garden to face off against the New York Knicks on Tuesday night.

The Cavs are fifth in the Eastern Conference standings but have struggled away from home. Thankfully for Cleveland fans, they are expected to have leading scorer Donovan Mitchell back in the lineup and will get to take on a New York squad that has lost four in a row.

NBA odds opened with Cleveland as 3-point road faves before ticking up to -3.5 while the Over/Under sits at 220.5. Here are my best Cavaliers vs. Knicks NBA betting picks and predictions for January 24. 

Cavaliers vs Knicks best odds

Cavaliers vs Knicks picks and predictions

The O/U on Julius Randle's points total is at 24.5 — almost identical to his scoring average (24.4 points per game) this season. However, given his recent production and a tough matchup today that seems a tad too high.

Randle is coming off a 23-point performance against the Raptors and has gone below this number in five of his last seven games. 

The Cavaliers play at the slowest pace in the league and are second in defensive rating. With Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley protecting the interior, Cleveland does an excellent job of guarding opposing bigs and allows the third-fewest points in the paint per game (45.6 ppg). 

Randle has also struggled against the Cavs in recent meetings. In four games over the last two seasons, he hasn't cracked the 20-point plateau even once and he's shooting a combined 37.9% from the field in those contests.

My best bet: Julius Randle Under 24.5 points (-102)

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Cavaliers vs Knicks spread analysis

The Cavs have played their last three games without Donovan Mitchell (28.4 ppg, 4.8 apg) but their All-Star shooting guard is listed as probable for tonight.

They are coming off a 114-102 win against the Bucks but Milwaukee was also playing without its best player in Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Cleveland was at home in that contest. 

The Cavs have gone an incredible 20-5 straight up and 16-8-1 against the spread with an average scoring margin of +7.8 ppg at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse this season. However, they're just 9-14 SU (8-13-2 ATS) with a scoring margin of +0.8 ppg on the road. 

Cleveland has been the NBA's highest-rated team on defense but has also been solid on the other end of the court and ranks 10th in offensive efficiency. 

The Knicks are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games overall, and in their last contest lost 125-116 to the Raptors on the road. That said, New York had gone 7-1 SU (6-2 ATS) in its previous eight games and is still two games above .500.

The Knicks are 14th in the league in defensive efficiency and ranks an impressive sixth in offensive efficiency. Randle is one of three players averaging over 20 ppg along with R.J. Barrett (20.3 ppg) and Jalen Brunson (22.5 ppg, 6.3 apg).  

Cavaliers vs Knicks Over/Under analysis

While the Cavs have seen a significant dropoff away from home, it's worth mentioning that most of those struggles have been on the offensive end of the floor.

They average 113.9 ppg at home but have seen that number plummet to 109.3 ppg on the road. However, they've still been very tough defensively on the road where they hold opponents to 108.5 ppg — the lowest number in the league. 

I mentioned that Cleveland plays at the slowest tempo in the league, but the Knicks don't play much faster and rank 27th in pace. 

While many teams around the league prefer to roll with small-ball lineups and rarely have more than one big on the floor, these teams like to play half-court sets with multiple big men.

The Cavs start both Mobley and Allen while Kevin Love averages more than 20 minutes per game off the bench.

Even with starting center Mitchell Robinson on the IL, New York has been giving plenty of burn to Jericho Sims and Isaiah Hartenstein — who often play in the frontcourt alongside Randle. 

Cavaliers vs Knicks betting trend to know

The Cavaliers are 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Cavaliers vs. Knicks.

Cavaliers vs Knicks game info

Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Date: Tuesday, January 24, 2023
Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Ohio, MSG

Cavaliers vs Knicks key injuries

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