A few months ago, this matchup looked like a Finals preview, but Golden State’s struggles have persisted to the point that now this may be the last time we will see these two meet this season. Milwaukee is ready, looking more and more like the defending champions.
Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Bucks at the Warriors tonight, March 12, with tip set for 8:30 ET.
Bucks vs Warriors odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The earliest books to open this line Friday evening did so with the Warriors favored by a point, but as the availability picture became clearer, the Bucks became 2.0-point favorites Friday night, where they remained through Saturday morning despite a few moments dropping to -1.5. The total spiked in that same interval, opening at 231.0 and rising as high as 237.5 by Saturday lunchtime.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Bucks vs Warriors predictions
- Prediction: Bucks -2 (-110)
- Prediction: Over 237 (-110)
- Best bet: Antetkounmpo Over 12.5 rebounds (+100)
Predictions made on 3/12/2022 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Bucks vs Warriors game info
• Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Saturday, March 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Bucks vs Warriors betting preview
Key injuries
Bucks: Lindell Washington PG (Questionable), George Hill PG (Out), Pat Connaughton SG (Out), Brook Lopez C (Out).
Warriors: Gary Payton II PG (Probable), Otto Porter Jr SF (Out), Draymond Green PF (Out), Andre Iguodala SG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games, favored in all of them by at least 4.5 points. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Warriors.
Bucks vs Warriors picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Back-to-back wins against playoff teams helped the Warriors slow the bleeding that had dropped them from vaguely in contention for the top seed in the West to No. 3. They have beaten the spread in three straight games, but the fact remains, Golden State has fallen off in 2022.
On the season, the Warriors have the No. 1 defensive rating and No. 11 offensive rating in the league. Since Jan. 1, they have the No. 6 defense and No. 18 offense. Those ratings would make for a still formidable foe, but when looking since Feb. 1, the picture skews even further. Golden State has the No. 12 offense since Feb. 1 and the No. 19 defense. That is an average team.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee has the No. 3 offensive rating this season and No. 2 since Jan. 1. As one title contender is scuffling to regain its identity, the reigning champs are rounding into a juggernaut once again.
Prediction: Bucks -2 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The instinct is to run from the overnight spike. NBA totals do not move 6.5 points all that often, and even if it is out of deference to Milwaukee’s offense — averaging 126.3 points per game in its last nine games — that jump is a lot to ignore. But this game will not be slow, though also perhaps short of a frenetic pace.
The Bucks speed things up, ranking No. 7 in possessions per game since Jan. 1 and No. 8 since Feb. 1, and the Warriors tend to hover closer to a league average (No. 15 and No. 18, respectively). To reach a total as lofty as 237.5, some urgency will be required, but equally as important, shotmaking will be required. Fitting given the No. 1 offensive rating since Feb. 1, Milwaukee has a 61.1 true shooting percentage since Feb. 1. Yes, that’s tops in the league. Golden State is at No. 8 with a 59.0 true shooting percentage.
It’s a simple game, really. Put the ball in the basket. And few do it better than these two will tonight.
Prediction: Over 237 (-110)
Best bet
If this bet falls short, it is because of that efficient shooting. But still, the odds here are too good to bypass. Giannis Antetkounmpo has managed at least 12 rebounds in seven of his last nine games, averaging 13.3 rebounds per game in that stretch. Yet, betting on that returns even money tonight. If the Warriors miss just a few shots, Giannis will collect. Golden State has snagged just 8.75 offensive rebounds per game since Feb. 1, part of ranking No. 26 in the league in rebounds per game in the same stretch.
The Warriors just do not have competent size these days. Kevon Looney does what he can, but he is the only member of the Dubs who is playing tonight who has averaged more than five rebounds a game in the last six weeks. The next best? Steph’s 4.7 boards per game. Giannis may outrebound them both on his own.
Pick: Giannis Antetkounmpo Over 12.5 rebounds (+100)
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