76ers vs Nuggets Picks and Predictions: Sixers Showing ATS Value

Tonight's Sixers-Nuggets matchup is almost as much about who is not playing as who will actually be on the court... but our NBA betting preview is about what will happen between the guys who are playing — and we like Philly to cover a lofty spread.

Last Updated: Nov 18, 2021 1:09 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Tobias Harris Philadelphia 76ers NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia 76ers will be hoping to avoid a six-game losing streak when they face the Denver Nuggets tonight at the Pepsi Center. Unfortunately for NBA betting fans everywhere, Joel Embiid again will be sidelined in this game, robbing us of getting to see him go head-to-head with Nikola Jokic.

Without Embiid, Denver is favored by 7.5 points at home but that doesn’t mean Philadelphia will go away easily. Keep reading our Sixers vs. Nuggets picks and predictions for Thursday, November 18 to find out why.

76ers vs Nuggets odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Nuggets were 8-point favorites when this game opened, but the line has moved to 7.5 despite news that the Sixers will also be without both Danny Green and Matisse Thybulle. The public is also backing Denver, suggesting sharp money is in on Philadelphia. The total, which opened at 209, has moved in both directions across books, as you can find it anywhere from 208 to 209.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

76ers vs Nuggets predictions

Predictions made on 11/18/2021 at 12:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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76ers vs Nuggets game info

Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Date: Thursday, November 18, 2021
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET

76ers vs Nuggets betting preview


76ers: Danny Green G (Out), Matisse Thybulle F (Out), Joel Embiid C (Out), Ben Simmons G (Out).
Nuggets: Zeke Nnaji C (Doubtful), Will Barton G (Doubtful), Michael Porter Jr. F (Out), Jamal Murray G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Nuggets.

76ers vs Nuggets picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

The Sixers haven’t been playing well recently and a lot of that has to do with the absence of Embiid. The big man last played in a November 6 victory over Chicago — and Philadelphia has lost all five games since he's been out. Now, the Sixers will look to find a way to beat the Nuggets, who have won five of their last six games but are coming off of a 10-point loss to Dallas on Monday.

Philadelphia ultimately shouldn’t come away with a win in this game, but you shouldn’t be all that surprised if it can hang around in this one. Embiid might be in street clothes but Andre Drummond has played pretty well in his absence. Prior to posting just six points and six boards in a blowout loss to Utah on Tuesday, Drummond had averaged 11.5 points and 18.3 rebounds per game in his previous four contests while starting in Embiid's place.

He’ll have his work cut out for him trying to handle Jokic in this one, but Drummond has been a lot more disciplined and active as a defender this year. If he can so much as hold his own in this game, the Sixers will have a legitimate shot. Keep in mind that Denver also has its fair share of injuries to deal with too: The Nuggets are currently without Will Barton, Michael Porter Jr., and Jamal Murray — a bulk of the team’s perimeter scoring.

The Sixers actually have a significant edge in the backcourt with the lineups these two are throwing out tonight. Sophomore Tyrese Maxey has emerged for Philadelphia this season, as the 21-year-old is averaging 17.5 points and 4.4 assists per game and looks like a future star. The best part about it is that he gets after it on the defensive end, so he could give the Nuggets backcourt some issues here. Meanwhile, Seth Curry is putting together a 50/40/90 season and he’s averaging 15.4 points per game for the Sixers, plus Philadelphia also still has Tobias Harris, who will be arguably the second-best player on the floor tonight.

Jokic is a remarkable player and should put up huge numbers here. However, he just doesn’t have the help he needs at the moment and the Sixers could be a tough matchup for rookie guard Bones Hyland — who coach Michael Malone has enjoyed turning to when Monte Morris and Austin Rivers can’t get it going.

Prediction: Sixers +7.5 (-110)

The Sixers have struggled defensively this season, which is part of not having Ben Simmons with the team — and it doesn’t help that Embiid is now out too. However, the Nuggets are just 17th in the NBA in offensive rating this year, so it’s not like this offense is all that potent right now. And the fact that they are down some of their best scorers means that Philadelphia should be able to turn in a nice defensive effort here.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, are third in the NBA in defensive rating and should be able to make life rough on the Sixers in this game. Overall, this should be a low-scoring affair and Under bettors should be licking their chops.

It doesn’t hurt that the Under is 8-0 in Philadelphia road games when the team is coming off four or five non-covers in its last six games under head coach Doc Rivers.

Prediction: Under 209.5 (-110)

The Under is a great bet in this game but this is just too many points for the Sixers to be getting with both of these teams down significant players. Jokic is, by far, the best player on the floor in this game, but the big man puts up huge numbers regardless of who is out there. However, the Sixers have more good players scattered throughout the rotation than the Nuggets do right now — even with Thybulle and Green out.

Over the last three seasons, the Sixers are also 10-5 ATS when coming off a game in which they scored 95 or fewer points. And in that same span, the Nuggets are a lousy 6-12 ATS when facing Atlantic Division opponents.

Pick: Sixers +7.5 (-110)

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