After 35 races and a season full of high-stakes drama, the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship race at Phoenix Raceway delivers one final act — and the last title bout under the current playoff system. On Sunday, November 2, at 3:00 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock, NASCAR race picks for the finale become must-see TV.
This year’s Championship 4 features Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe from Joe Gibbs Racing, and Kyle Larson and William Byron representing Hendrick Motorsports. Whoever crosses the finish line first among these four earns the Cup; there are no points or second chances.
In 2025's last free betting picks article, we reckon Briscoe finishes the job for JGR and shocks NASCAR's heavyweights.
NASCAR prop picks for NASCAR Cup Series Championship
- Top 3 Finish: Chase Briscoe (+220)
- Top 5 Finish: Ryan Blaney (-110)
- Top 10 Finish: Tyler Reddick (+120)
NASCAR NASCAR Cup Series Championship props and best bets
Top 3 Finish: Chase Briscoe (+220 at bet365)
Chase Briscoe is one of those drivers whose name you know, you watch him race every weekend, but he just isn't "The Guy" until he has actually accomplished something.
For the longest time before the 2025 season, it felt like he'd never win a big race or contend when it mattered the most. Now, he's been killing it at JGR, and he could win the Championship if he plays his cards right.
Believe it or not, there's some good data backing Briscoe's claim for NASCAR glory:
- 🏁 Elite Phoenix qualifying and pole record: Briscoe led all drivers in poles this season (seven) and has started up front at similar flat tracks, giving him the best shot at track position and early control, which is crucial at Phoenix’s tight layout.
- 🚀 Second-half surge and clutch playoff form: After a slow start with his new team, Briscoe closed strong, scoring three wins and 10 Top 5 finishes while consistently contending under pressure. His ability to deliver in elimination races sets him apart when the stakes are highest.
- 🔧 Joe Gibbs Racing technical edge: JGR’s flat-track setups and strategic experience are proven at Phoenix, and Briscoe’s adaptation to their engineering gives him a distinct advantage for both speed and pit-stop execution on race day.
The +220 Top 3 price is right around where it should be. If Briscoe qualifies well, this'll probably shrink to +150. It might be time to grab it while you can.
Top 5 Finish: Ryan Blaney (-110 at bet365)
Ryan Blaney may not have made it to the Championship 4, but his 2025 season was pretty strong. If the data is to be believed, 2025's last race should shape up well for him to at least contend for a win.
- 🚀 Consistent late-season speed: Blaney has quietly built momentum with strong showings in the playoff rounds, showcasing improved performance at tracks similar to Phoenix and peaking just when Top 5 finishes matter most.
- 🏎️ Penske’s proven Phoenix setups: Team Penske’s cars have historically adapted well to Phoenix’s changing track conditions, giving Blaney a technical edge for long green runs and tire management that often define the Top 5.
- 🔄 Clean race execution and restart strength: Blaney excels at avoiding trouble and capitalizing on restarts, often picking off positions during critical late-race sequences. His ability to stay out of trouble and make strategic moves makes him a reliable Top 5 contender.
Some might say the -110 price is a bit steep, but it's surprisingly that oddsmakers didn't push this number closer to -150. It makes sense to take a crack at -110, but it wouldn't be worth going any shorter than this price.
Top 10 Finish: Tyler Reddick (+120 at bet365)
It's a bit weird to see Tyler Reddick not in the hunt for a championship, as many had high hopes for him. That said, his 2025 season hasn't been a total letdown like the Toronto Maple Leafs in an elimination game. And, who knows, maybe Reddick puts on a clinic before the season concludes? The numbers say he could.
- 🌵 Strong long-run pace on low-grip tracks: Reddick’s driving style and car setup thrive on tracks like Phoenix, where tire management and consistent speed over green-flag stretches set him up well to pick off Top 10 finishes when others fall off.
- 🔧 Adaptability to changing track conditions: Throughout 2025, Reddick has proven capable of adjusting quickly as grip fades and the racing surface changes, allowing him to maintain position and stay out of trouble—key for nabbing Top 10 results at tactical venues.
- 🏁 Late-season momentum: With multiple Top 10s earned in the final stretch of the season, Reddick closes out the year as one of the drivers most likely to convert recent form into another solid finish, even against a pressure-packed championship field.
It seems slightly silly that the oddsmakers are handing out a +120 price for Reddick to finish in the Top 10. While the bookies are memeing, bettors oughta take the opportunity to grab a screenshot.
Championship 4 contenders at a glance
- Denny Hamlin (Gibbs): Most wins in 2025 (six), remains NASCAR’s winningest active driver never to claim a title. At 44, he's chasing a legacy moment, knowing this could be his last real shot. Father Time can only be outrun for so long.
- Chase Briscoe (Gibbs): In his debut season with JGR after Truex Jr.’s retirement, Briscoe overcame early jitters to close out strong — three wins, 10 Top 5s, and a series-best seven poles.
- Kyle Larson (Hendrick): Already a championship winner in 2021, Larson’s second-most Top 10s and relentless playoff form mark him as the sport’s biggest threat to repeat.
- William Byron (Hendrick): Started the season with a Daytona 500 win and led the most laps all year. Byron’s shot at joining legends who’ve swept NASCAR’s biggest races is on the line.
A big thank you goes out to those who followed along all season long for our NASCAR race picks. Enjoy the offseason and see y'all next year!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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