🏁Brickyard 400: Key takeaways
- Best pre-qualifying prediction: Chase Briscoe to win (+1567) — last year's run was much better than finish suggests.
- Best pre-qualifying value: Shane Van Gisbergen to finish Top 10 (+426) — exits strong showing at North Wilkesboro.
- Best pre-qualifying prop: Austin Cindric to finish Top 10 (+257) — can build on Team Penske momentum.
- Track: Fuel conservation will be front-of-mind throughout after it effectively decided the 2025 race.
- Weather: Rain should stay away, but hot conditions are expected.
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Brickyard 400 odds: Favorites & full field
Check out the full Brickyard 400 field.
| Driver Name |  Probability |
American Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 20% | +400 |
| Tyler Reddick | 11% | +809 |
| Kyle Larson | 11% | +809 |
| Christopher Bell | 9% | +1011 |
| Ryan Blaney | 9% | +1011 |
| Chase Elliott | 6% | +1567 |
| Chase Briscoe | 6% | +1567 |
| Bubba Wallace | 6% | +1567 |
| Ty Gibbs | 5% | +1900 |
| William Byron | 5% | +1900 |
Odds as of 7-25. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
Brickyard 400 predictions (updated Saturday)
- Outright: Chase Briscoe (+1567)
- Top 10: Austin Cindric (+257)
- Top 10: Shane Van Gisbergen (+426)
- Matchup: Ryan Blaney (-213) over Todd Gilliland
Who's hot? Who's not?
- 🔥 Denny Hamlin — has won at three of the last four tracks classified as "intermediate/large oval."
- ❄️ Michael McDowell — 14 straight races without a Top 10 at an intermediate/large oval track.
Track breakdown: What wins at Indianapolis Motor Speedway?
- Staying in the preferred racing line saves all kinds of time. Missing your marks on any of the four turns can cost a driver several 10ths of a second during these long laps at IMS.
- You'll hear lots of talk about fuel conservation, with drivers occasionally allowing opponents to pass and save gas in the draft, as well as lap time loss from racing outside the preferred line in a two-wide duel.
Key stats & driver profiles to target
- Top 10 starting positions have accounted for 65.5% of all Brickyard 400 wins.
- Six of the last eight Brickyard 400s have needed at least one overtime finish.
Drivers to watch
- Ty Gibbs leads all active drivers in average starting position here (5.5).
Odds movement & market notes
- Denny Hamlin opened as a solid favorite (+400 vs. +809 for co-second choices Tyler Reddick and Kyle Larson) as he looks for the fourth and final NASCAR "Crown Jewel" victory. He should be a popular bet throughout the weekend with that storyline hanging out there.
- Todd Gilliland is in line to win $1 million via the NASCAR In-Season Challenge if he beats Ryan Blaney head-to-head. That storyline will likely drive down his props and outright odds.
Outright picks: Winner predictions
Pick: Chase Briscoe (+1567)
Looking for redemption and brings solid form to Indy.
- Track Fit: Was running Top 10 last year before needing to stop for fuel ahead of double overtime.
- Recent Form: Top 3 in three of last four races, including a win at Chicagoland.
- Market Value: Play to +1000.
Risk: Just one win all season long.
Pick made on Saturday, 7-25.
Best top finish predictions
Pick 1: Austin Cindric to finish Top 10 (+257)
Cindric searching for Penske triple after Blaney, Logano wins.
- Track Fit: Top 10 in 2024, robbed of another last year due to a flat tire.
- Recent Form: Top 15 in four straight overall.
- Market Value: +220 or better is fair.
Risk: Just four Top 10s in 2026.
Pick made on Saturday, 7-25.
Pick 2: Shane Van Gisbergen to finish Top 10 (+426)
SVG has strung some solid finishes together of late.
- Track Fit: Has led laps in two similar races in 2026, and tallied a Top 5 at Nashville.
- Recent Form: Sixth or better in three of last four overall.
- Market Value: Would take this down all the way to +275.
Risk: Not known for his oval prowess.
Pick made on Saturday, 7-25.
Best matchup & head-to-head props
Pick: Ryan Blaney (-213) over Todd Gilliland
Gilliland's good form here does not trump Blaney's recent heater.
- Matchup Advantage: Blaney beat Gilliland head-to-head in 10 of 11 races prior to last week.
- Key Stat: Blaney paces the Cup Series with 15 Top 10s, vs. two for Gilliland.
Risk: This prop is juicy, I wouldn't go much lower than this.
Pick made on Saturday, 7-25.
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How to watch the Brickyard 400
| Location: | Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Speedway, IN |
| Date: | Sunday, July 26, 2026 |
| Start time: | 2 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Check out the full weekend schedule for the 2026 Brickyard 400.
Indianapolis Motor Speedway weather
It looks like rain won't be an issue on Sunday, but overheating could be. Temperatures are expected to climb to 89F, meaning it could be over 110F on the track.
Previous Brickyard 400 winners
| Year | Winner | Manufacturer |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Bubba Wallace | Toyota |
| 2024 | Kyle Larson | Chevrolet |
| 2020 | Kevin Harvick | Ford |
| 2019 | Kevin Harvick | Ford |
| 2018 | Brad Keselowski | Ford |
Brickyard 400 FAQs
When is the 2026 Brickyard 400?
The Brickyard 400 goes green just after 2 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 26 on TNT.
Where will the 2026 Brickyard 400 be held?
Indianapolis Motor Speedway will host the Brickyard 400.
Who is the 2026 Brickyard 400 favorite?
Denny Hamlin is favored to win the Brickyard 400.
Who won the Brickyard 400 last year?
Bubba Wallace won the 2025 Brickyard 400 in double overtime.
How do Brickyard 400 props work?
You can predict Top 3, 5, and 10 finishes for individual drivers, as well as head-to-head matchup winners.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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