🏁Southern 500: Key takeaways
- Best pre-qualifying prediction: Tyler Reddick to win (15%) — Frequently found up front here.
- Best pre-qualifying value: Ty Gibbs to win (6%) — Can outrun his odds.
- Best pre-qualifying prop: Ross Chastain Top 10 (32%) — Getting overlooked based on weak overall form in '26.
- Track: Manage your tires and roll with track changes as day turns into night.
- Weather: Hot, but dry.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Southern 500 odds: Favorites & full field
Check out the full Southern 500 field.
| Driver Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 18% |
| Tyler Reddick | 15% |
| Chase Briscoe | 12% |
| Kyle Larson | 10% |
| Ryan Blaney | 8% |
| Christopher Bell | 8% |
| William Byron | 7% |
| Ty Gibbs | 6% |
| Chase Elliott | 4% |
| Brad Keselowksi | 4% |
Odds as of 9-5. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
Southern 500 predictions (updated Saturday)
- Outright: Tyler Reddick (15%)
- Outright: Ty Gibbs (6%)
- Top 10: Chris Buescher (49%)
- Top 10: Ross Chastain (32%)
Who's hot? Who's not?
- 🔥 Denny Hamlin — No worse than 11th in six straight.
- ❄️ Zane Smith — Missed the Top 10 in eight straight.
Track breakdown: What wins at Darlington Raceway?
- The fuel window at Darlington is 58-63 laps, but drivers will often come to pit road much earlier due to tire wear. Expect most stops to be four-tire ones.
- Cars will constantly need adjusting as the sun goes down and track temperature changes.
Key stats & driver profiles to target
- Over 83% of winners at Darlington have started in the Top 10.
Drivers to watch
- Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers in average starting position (8.5) at Darlington.
- Kyle Larson leads all active drivers in laps led (1,070).
Odds movement & market notes
- This price may not last on Tyler Reddick (15%). No one's bettered his 4.4 average starting spot at Darlington since 2023.
- Chase Briscoe (12%) could see a slight dip. He's missed the Top 10 in two straight overall, and is just 10th in average starting spot here (12.6) since 2023.
Outright picks: Winner predictions
Pick 1: Tyler Reddick to win (15%)
Reddick's midseason malaise appears to be over.
- Track Fit: Won here in March, placed in 12 straight stages.
- Recent Form: Average finish of 7.3 in last three overall.
- Market Value: Play to 18%.
Risk: Peak driver rating in last three was only 80.4.
Pick made on Saturday, 9-5.
Pick 2: Ty Gibbs to win (6%)
Brings solid form at this oval into Sunday.
- Track Fit: Three Top 10s in last five starts here.
- Recent Form: Average finish of 6.6 over eight starts prior to Daytona wreck.
- Market Value: Go to 8%.
Risk: Has yet to win at this level outside of short tracks.
Pick made on Saturday, 9-5.
Best top finish predictions
Pick 1: Chris Buescher to finish Top 10 (49%)
As consistent as they come at this chaotic course.
- Track Fit: Four consecutive Top 10s at Darlington.
- Recent Form: Third in average finish at flat/short intermediate tracks since '23.
- Market Value: Cutoff point is 52%.
Risk: Losing ticket in six straight overall.
Pick made on Saturday, 9-5.
Pick 2: Ross Chastain to finish Top 10 (32%)
Bad luck at Darlington could turn around.
- Track Fit: Ninth in average rating last seven starts here.
- Recent Form: Seventh at Iowa, 12th at Richmond prior to back-to-back mishaps.
- Market Value: Lots of room, I'd still play it at 40%.
Risk: Only five Top 10s in '26.
Pick made on Saturday, 9-5.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS35' and trade $20 on any event contracts — including NASCAR markets — to get $35!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
How to watch the Southern 500
| Location: | Darlington Raceway, Darlington, SC |
| Date: | Sunday, Sept. 6, 2026 |
| Start time: | 5 p.m. ET |
| TV: | USA |
Check out the full weekend schedule for the 2026 Southern 500.
Darlington Raceway weather
Temperatures will peak at 87F, but dip once the sun sets. Calm and clear conditions are expected on Sunday night.
Previous Southern 500 winners
| Year | Winner | Manufacturer |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Chase Briscoe | Toyota |
| 2024 | Chase Briscoe | Ford |
| 2023 | Kyle Larson | Chevrolet |
| 2022 | Erik Jones | Chevrolet |
| 2021 | Denny Hamlin | Toyota |
Southern 500 FAQs
When is the 2026 Southern 500?
The green flag drops for the Southern 500 just after 5 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sept. 6.
Where will the 2026 Southern 500 be held?
Darlington Raceway plays host to the Southern 500.
Who is the 2026 Southern 500 favorite?
Denny Hamlin is favored in the Southern 500.
Who won the Southern 500 last year?
Chase Briscoe has won this race two straight years.
How do Southern 500 props work?
In addition to outright win picks, you can select drivers to finish in the Top 3, 5, or 10.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
