Yankees vs White Sox Picks and Predictions: Clash of Colossal Expectations

The Yankees, despite owning the best record in the AL, are underdogs in Chicago tonight. While Dylan Cease toes the rubber for the White Sox, we like New York to come away with a win in what should be yet another low-scoring game.

Last Updated: May 12, 2022 3:00 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Anthony Rizzo Gleyber Torres New York Yankees
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees and the Chicago White Sox begin an intriguing series on Thursday night. Both the Yankees and White Sox entered the season with high expectations but so far only one has achieved the start they would like.

At 22-8, the Yanks are off to their best start after 30 games in nearly 20 years. Meanwhile, it has been a disappointing start for the Pale Hose at 15-14. But Chicago hands the ball to the dynamite Dylan Cease for the opener. Can the White Sox cash as a favorite or will the Yankees provide value as an underdog?

Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Yankees vs. White Sox on Thursday, May 12.

Yankees vs White Sox odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The White Sox opened this American League matchup as roughly -135 home favorites and have seen the early money, moving the line to -150. This total hit the board at 7.5 but has been bet up to 8 with that number juiced to the Under as of Thursday afternoon.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Yankees vs White Sox predictions

Picks made on 5/12/2022 at 2:35 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Yankees vs White Sox game info

Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
Date: Thursday, May 12, 2022
First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
TV: YES, NBC Sports Chicago

Yankees vs White Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Luis Gil (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Gil is one of the Yankees' top pitching prospects, who is making a spot start tonight. He got called up last August and made six mostly solid starts but has struggled mightily in Triple-A so far this season.

Dylan Cease (3-1, 2.38 ERA): Cease has looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball through the first 30 games of the season, striking out batters in bunches. So much so that he’s now the third favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award.


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Yankees: No key injuries to report.
White Sox: Reynaldo Lopez RP (Out), Andrew Vaughn OF (Out), Aaron Bummer RP (Out), Eloy Jimenez OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 12-4-2 in the Yankees' last 18 games as an underdog and 6-1-1 in the White Sox's last eight overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. White Sox

Yankees vs White Sox picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Yankees are rolling. They have won 15 of their last 17 games to sit at 22-8 after their first 30 games. That is their best record through 30 games since 2003. 

They’ve been able to do that because they are firing on all cylinders right now. The starting pitching has been solid, the bullpen is still one of the best in baseball, and they get timely hitting. Most of those hits feel like bombs, but for now, it’s working.

On the other side, at 15-14, the White Sox would themselves classify their start as disappointing. The slow start can be attributed to an offense that has gone M.I.A. over the first month of the season. Chicago’s offense ranks 27th in scoring and 25th in OPS. But the White Sox are hoping they have turned a corner having won seven of their last eight. 

One thing that hasn’t been a disappointment for the White Sox has been their starting pitching, with none being more impressive than Dylan Cease.

The 26-year-old right-hander showed us flashes of how good he could be last season and it appears he has taken the next step in his development. Cease owns a ridiculously good 1.77 expected ERA, limiting opponents to a .161 expected batting average while racking up 47 strikeouts over his first 34 innings. 

That said, the Yankees will be a good test for him. They rank 13th in batting average and fifth in OPS while whacking the third-most home runs. The Yanks also got to Cease for eight runs on nine hits over 9 1-3 innings in two games against him last season. 

Countering Cease is Yankees prospect Luis Gil, who did throw some solid major-league innings last season but has allowed 18 runs on 18 hits in 17 Triple-A innings this year. Luckily, the White Sox rank 25th in batting average and 26th in OPS when facing right-handed pitching.

Don’t be surprised if Yanks manager Aaron Boone has a long bullpen plan ready for this one. If Gil gets in trouble, the Yankees can turn to a relief corps that ranks first in bullpen ERA in MLB.

Both teams enter this game playing well and while the White Sox clearly have the edge in starters, they are still struggling at the dish. Getting the Yankees at this price has us leaning towards the Bronx Bombers.

Prediction: Yankees (+130 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

The side in this matchup feels a little like a toss-up, but the total feels like a more solid bet. And while the early money came in on the Over, the number is high enough to like the other side now. 

Let's start with Cease. He has been one of the best starters in baseball to this point. He can locate an electric fastball and his slider has been devastating. Five of his six starts have seen him give up four or fewer hits while allowing three or fewer runs. He has also struck out eight or more batters in five of those six games.

He has also surrendered just one home run this season, which is important because no team relies more on the long ball than the Yankees. And they rank a middle-of-the-pack 13th in batting average when it comes to facing right-handed pitchers. On top of that, they have plated just 2.83 runs per game over their last six contests.

Conversely, while Gil has undoubtedly struggled in Triple-A this year, he does have some measure of success in the Bigs. In his six starts last season, the right-hander recorded a respectable 3.89 xERA and limited opponents to an xBA of .199. And, as noted, the White Sox have really struggled when facing righties this season. Despite the good run they’re on, they’re still scoring just 4.13 runs per game over the last eight.

Bet on this one to sneak Under the number.

Prediction: Under 8 (-115 at FanDuel)

Best bet

While the White Sox have struggled on offense this season, you can’t blame shortstop Tim Anderson. The certified professional hitter is batting .347 with a .912 OPS and is in one of his patented grooves.

Anderson has hits in 10 of his last 12 with seven of those being multi-hit affairs. He’s hitting .408 with a 1.045 OPS over that span and he’ll look to stay in that groove against Gil.

Gil is a strikeout artist who racked up 38 Ks in 29 1-3 major-league innings last season. The problem is that Anderson rarely strikes out. He’s struck out just 11 times this season, including just twice over this 12-game stretch.

Look for him to take advantage of this matchup with an inexperienced starter and go Over 1.5 total bases, something he has done nine times in the last 12 games.

Pick: Tim Anderson Over 1.5 total bases (+105)

MLB parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Yankees vs. White Sox picks, you could win $78.15 on a $10 bet?

Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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