Yankees vs Rays Prediction, Picks, & Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

Yandy Diaz is putting forth another solid season at the plate, and that especially holds true when facing left-handed pitching. Chris Hatfield has more insights as he focuses on Diaz's total bases prop ahead of tonight's AL East showdown.

Chris Hatfield - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Chris Hatfield • Betting Analyst
Jul 9, 2024 • 13:45 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Yandy Diaz Tampa Bay Rays MLB
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After a day off for both teams, the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays will open up a three-game series in the Sunshine State this evening.

My Yankees vs. Rays expect Tampa Bay leadoff man Yandy Diaz to continue to reach base safely, especially given the platoon advantage he's rewarded with on Tuesday.

Read more in our MLB picks for July 9.

Yankees vs Rays prediction

My best bet
Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 bases (-105 at bet365)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis

Carlos Rodon will take the mound for the New York Yankees tonight, and he's had a pretty average season. The metrics of his performances highlight why it hasn't been better: the hard-hit ball has been an issue.

Rodon is a strikeout pitcher with some promising metrics in whiff and strikeout rates, but the southpaw enters tonight with a barrel rate in the bottom 15% of baseball and a hard-hit rate that's only slightly better. 

Not only do the Tampa Bay Rays improve from 28th in baseball to 11th in hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching, but Yandy Diaz sees a significant boost against southpaws. 

The Tampa leadoff man boasts a Top-15 batting average in baseball and a Top-20 hard-hit rate of 41% against LHP. Diaz has also found success against Rodon in the past, owning a 1.500 OPS and a .333 average in nine at-bats against the Yankees hurler. 

In a game between two struggling teams that could go either way, betting on a veteran like Diaz is a good route. That belief is furthered when you consider the matchup and how strong it is for him. 

I project this prop at -128, so getting this at -105 is great value. 

Yankees vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)

Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 total bases

Yandy Diaz to record an RBI

We're building on our best bet by going all in on Diaz. 

Rodon has had issues all season giving up hard hits, and the Rays have been prolific in this regard when facing lefties. There are also plenty of players around Diaz in the Tampa lineup who can avoid Rodon's strikeout prowess and get on base.

There's a reasonable chance we can cash this whole thing with just one swing of the bat. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Yankees vs Rays odds

Yankees vs Rays live odds

Yankees vs Rays opening odds

  • Run line: New York -1.5 (+140) | Tampa Bay +1.5 (-165)
  • Moneyline: New York -125 | Tampa Bay +105
  • Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)

Yankees vs Rays spread and Over/Under analysis

  • New York hasn't won a series since mid-June and has lost seven of its last 10 games, yielding bettors a loss of -4.4 units.
  • Tampa Bay has prevailed in just four of its last 10 contests, losing bettors -2.9 units.
  • The Under is 7-3 in Tampa Bay's last 10 matches.

Yankees vs Rays trend

Tampa Bay has covered the run line in 13 of its last 19 games (+6.10 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays

Yankees vs Rays game info

Location: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
Date: Tuesday, 7-9-2024
First pitch: 6:50 p.m. ET
TV: YES, Bally Sun
Yankees starting pitcher: Carlos Rodon
(9-5, 4.42 ERA)
Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Pepiot
(4-4, 4.40 ERA)

Yankees vs Rays latest injuries

Yankees vs Rays weather

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