Yankees vs Rays Picks and Predictions: Take the Under in Tampa

The Yankees have lost a few weapons from their arsenal at the plate, but send ace Gerrit Cole to the mound today. Find out why he can easily take the sting out of the Rays in a low-scoring outing with our MLB betting picks.

Last Updated: May 28, 2022 9:46 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Gerrit Cole New York Yankees MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees will try to expand their lead in the AL East over the Tampa Bay Rays when they meet at Tropicana Field on Saturday afternoon. The teams are halfway through their four-game series, with the Yankees taking the first two of the set. 

Will the Bombers be able to make it three in a row on Saturday? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs Rays on Saturday, May 28.

Yankees vs Rays odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Yankees opened as consensus favorites of -136, and that line has either stood pat or drifted up a few cents at the majority of sportsbooks. The opening total has remained steady at 7.0.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Yankees vs Rays predictions

Picks made on 5/28/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Yankees vs Rays game info

Location: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
Date: Saturday, May 28, 2022
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
TV: YES, Bally Sports

Yankees vs Rays betting preview

Starting pitchers

Gerrit Cole (4-1, 3.31 ERA): Cole had a streak of five straight quality starts snapped by the Baltimore Orioles on Monday when he allowed five runs over eight innings of work – his longest effort of the season. Cole has had his strikeout pitches working this month, punching out 35 batters while walking only two.

Corey Kluber (1-2, 4.42 ERA): May has been a mixed bag for Kluber, who’s alternated quality starts with laborious three-inning outings (64 and 73 pitches, respectively). This will be his first effort against the Yankees in 2022. As has been the case for most of the season, Kluber will start on five days’ rest.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Yankees: DJ LeMahieu 2B (Questionable), Aaron Hicks CF (Questionable), Aroldis Chapman RP (Out), Giancarlo Stanton DH (Out), Jonathan Loaisiga RP (Out), Josh Donaldson 3B (Out), Chad Green RP (Out), Domingo German SP (Out), Tim Locastro CF (Out).
Rays: JT Chargois RP (Out), Andrew Kittredge RP (Out), Chris Mazza RP (Out), Brandon Lowe 2B (Out), Luis Patino SP (Out).

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Yankees are 16-5 in their last 21 games against AL East opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays

Yankees vs Rays picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Yankees should pick up yet another win behind their staff ace in Gerrit Cole on Saturday afternoon.

Cole was unlucky to be 1-3 with a 5.11 ERA against the Rays last year, as he produced a 0.973 WHIP against this rival. Ji-Man Choi and Yandy Diaz have done plenty of prior damage against the California native, going 18-for-38 (.474) lifetime with four homers and 13 RBI, but neither is in great form at the moment. Choi is batting only .188 in May, while Diaz has a .232 average this month. 

Cole has terrific numbers against Randy Arozarena, Kevin Kiermaier, and Manuel Margot, as this trio is a modest 10-for-53 (.189) all-time against him with only one round-tripper. Neutralizing Margot, in particular, will be huge for Cole, as he’s slashing .353/.411/.510 in 2022.

Meanwhile, even if the inconsistent Corey Kluber is on top of his game, the Bombers’ order should be able to figure him out. The Yankees are sixth in baseball in runs per game (4.72), and fifth in OPS (.728).

Though New York’s lineup lost some of its pop with Giancarlo Stanton hitting the IL, they still boast AL MVP frontrunner Aaron Judge. The upcoming free agent has hit eight of his MLB-leading 17 homers on the road, and has a robust 1.030 OPS as a visiting player this year.

Trend bettors should note that the Yankees are 10-1 in their last 11 road games against right-handed starters.

Prediction: Yankees moneyline (-139 at Unibet)

Over/Under analysis

The starters lined up for this game are capable of pitching both deep and effectively into this game on their best day, and the bullpens can back them up too.

Cole is 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA on the road this season, compared to his 1-1 record and 3.52 ERA at home. He should tame a Tampa offense that’s 20th in runs per game at home (3.73) in 2022.

Once Cole exits, the Yankees’ fourth-ranked bullpen by ERA (3.11) will take over. Though this unit currently lacks fire-balling closer Aroldis Chapman, relievers like Clay Holmes – who’s allowed only one earned run over 24 2-3 innings – can hold the line for manager Aaron Boone. 

Kluber owns some solid splits in both daytime games and home games this season. He sports a 1.93 ERA in afternoon outings this year (18 2-3 innings), and a 2.91 ERA at Tropicana Field (21 2-3 innings). 

The Rays started baseball’s bullpen revolution, so it’s no wonder they’re ninth by ERA (3.30) in 2022. Jason Adam (0.96 ERA) and J.P. Feyereisen (no earned runs over 21 frames) have been driving forces behind this unit’s success. 

Prediction: Under 7.0 (-104 at FanDuel)

Best bet

Taking the Over on Cole’s strikeout total is tempting, but it might be best to stick to a no-frills Under wager instead. 

The Yankees have lost enough starch in their lineup due to injury to suggest that they won’t turn this game into a rout. The Rays have been struggling to score of late, suffering a shutout on Friday evening.

Kluber is the lone question mark regarding the total, but he should keep things under control, and manager Kevin Cash should have him on a fairly tight leash too. Look for the bullpens to do their job in the late innings and secure the Under.

Pick: Under 7.0 (-104 at FanDuel

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