Phillies vs Mets Picks and Predictions: Long Day in New York for Eflin

Philadelphia made the late decision to send Zach Eflin to the mound today, with New York licking its chops on the other side. The potent Mets bats should help the home side to victory over the Phillies — read more in our picks.

Last Updated: May 28, 2022 12:29 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Starling Marte New York Mets MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets will renew acquaintances once more at Citi Field on Saturday night.

The NL East rivals have already faced each other 10 times this season, with the Mets holding a 7-3 season-series edge. The Phillies lost 8-6 on Friday and have now dropped eight of their last 12 overall, while New York is 6-3 in its last nine contests.

What does Saturday have in store for these divisional foes? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs Mets on Saturday, May 28.

Phillies vs Mets odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Mets opened as consensus favorites of -114 and were quickly bet down to the -130 range at the majority of sportsbooks. However, this may be due to the Phillies’ late announcement of Zach Eflin’s start being moved back a day. Zack Wheeler, originally scheduled to pitch on Saturday, will now start on Sunday instead. 

The total opened at 8.5 and has remained there since, with some action on the Over forcing sites to adjust the vig accordingly.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Phillies vs Mets predictions

Picks made on 5/28/2022 at 11:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Phillies vs Mets game info

Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
Date: Saturday, May 28, 2022
First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

Phillies vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Zach Eflin (1-3, 3.65 ERA): Eflin is fresh off arguably his best start of the year, as he held the Dodgers to two runs over seven frames while registering 12 strikeouts last Sunday. Eflin has pitched to some stark home/road splits so far this season, going 1-1 with a 1.57 ERA at Citizens Bank Park, and 0-2 with a 7.07 ERA everywhere else. 

Taijuan Walker (2-0, 2.70 ERA): Taijuan Walker has been highly effective over his last three starts, allowing only three earned runs over 19 innings of work. That includes his seven innings of shutout baseball in Coors Field against the Rockies on Sunday. He’s taken on the Phillies three times already this year, pitching to a 4.91 ERA and a 1.364 WHIP.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Phillies: Didi Gregorius SS (Out).
Mets: Travis Jankowski RF (Out), Chris Bassitt SP (Questionable), Max Scherzer SP (Out), Tylor Megill SP (Out), Jacob deGrom SP (Out), Trevor May RP (Out), James McCann C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Phillies are 7-18 in their last 25 games against NL East opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mets

Phillies vs Mets picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Mets’ potent offense, combined with a solid start from Taijuan Walker, should propel them to victory over the Phillies on Saturday night. 

New York is third in the majors in runs per game (4.89), getting major contributions from up and down the lineup. Brandon Nimmo has a .386 OBP at the top of the order, Pete Alonso is the MLB leader in RBI (45), and Jeff McNeil has 16 multi-hit games under his belt. 

This unit will take on a starter in Zach Eflin who they tagged for five runs in 4 1-3 innings on May 1. Backing Eflin is a Philadelphia bullpen that’s 22nd in baseball in ERA this season (4.25). 

Walker was roughed up by the Phils in Citizens Bank Park when he last faced them on May 5 (six earned runs over four frames), but he blanked them over five frames at Citi Field on April 30. The Louisiana native owns a 2.70 ERA in Queens this year, building on what was a strong season at his own ballpark in 2021. Walker authored a 3.46 ERA and a .198 opponent batting average at home last year.

The trends suggest that New York is the right side too, as the Phillies are 6-14 in their last 20 games as a road underdog, and 2-6 in their last eight games against right-handed starters. The Mets are 20-9 in their last 29 games as a home favorite, and 22-8 in their last 30 games against right-handed starters.

Prediction: Mets moneyline (-122 at WynnBET)

Over/Under analysis

The Mets are certainly not the only team in this tilt that can knock the ball around and out of the park. The Phillies should contribute their fair share of runs and get this game to go Over the total.

Philadelphia is ninth in the majors at 4.57 runs per game. Bryce Harper has not let a nagging elbow issue stop him from getting his hits at the plate. The former two-time MVP is batting .375 in May with seven four-baggers and 18 RBI. 

The Phillies are seventh in the majors in home runs hit this month (31), with Harper leading his squad. Rhys Hoskins and Kyle Schwarber are close behind at five dingers apiece. 

If this unit doesn’t get to Walker, they should be able to attack the Mets’ mediocre bullpen, which is 14th by ERA (3.63) this year. After a brilliant beginning to the campaign, Drew Smith has regressed, allowing at least one earned run in four of his last six appearances. And though he shut the door on Philly on Friday night, Edwin Diaz has blown the save in two of his last four opportunities.

The Over is 7-1-1 in the Phillies’ last nine road games, and 5-1 in the Mets’ last six games against right-handed starters.

Prediction: Over 8.5 (-113 at Unibet)

Best bet

Starling Marte should factor prominently into a potential offensive explosion for the Mets on Saturday night.

Marte is batting .288 against righties in his first year with the Amazins, and .304 at Citi Field. His corresponding opposite splits are .225 and .253, respectively. 

He has 12 hits in 41 at-bats against Phillies pitching this season (.293), and he’s owned Eflin in the past. Marte is 7-for-13 (.538) all-time against him with a homer and five RBI. Only one of those at-bats resulted in a strikeout. 

Since coming off the bereavement list on May 21, Marte is 9-for-29 (.310) with a tater and five runs driven in. He should have at least four at-bats near the top of the Mets’ lineup on Saturday night, giving him ample opportunity to keep his bat hot.

Pick: Starling Marte Over 0.5 hits (-280 at PointsBet)

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