The New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners will wrap up a three-game series this evening.
Despite dropping last night's game, my Yankees vs. Mariners predictions are bullish on the Bronx Bombers tonight.
I explain why Will Warren has a clearer path to success than Luis Castillo with my MLB picks for Wednesday, May 14.
Yankees vs Mariners prediction
My Yankees vs Mariners best bet: Yankees moneyline (-115 at bet365)
Luis Castillo has only had two truly elite seasons: his 2017 rookie campaign, and 2020. Beyond those, his other six seasons reflect a pitcher teetering between ace-level brilliance and above-average reliability, consistent but rarely dominant.
At age 32, this season marks the roughest start of Castillo's career. He remains serviceable, but five years ago, expectations for him were far loftier.
The question is whether this dip signals a permanent decline or whether Castillo can rediscover his peak form for a late-career resurgence. I lean toward the former, and this outlook shapes my best bet on the New York Yankees in this matchup.
It's difficult for a fastball-heavy pitcher to succeed against this Yankees team. If you throw a lot of high-velocity stuff, you'd better be able to induce strikeouts or soft contact, otherwise, you're mostly relying on luck. Castillo hasn't done either this season, and that's hard to look past.
Entering this matchup, he ranks in the 30th percentile in hard-hit rate, 30th percentile in barrel rate, and 25th percentile in strikeout rate. A play on the Yankees is just as much commentary on Castillo's future.
Will Warren should do just enough on the other side.
I'm not overly high on the righty, but he's been better than expected over the last few starts. The Seattle Mariners are striking out less than they were a season ago, and in some ways, that was inevitable. But it's still a team with a Top 10 K-rate and whiff rate.
Warren should expose some of those issues with a K-rate that sits in the Top 25% of the league.
Yankees vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees moneyline
Miles Mastrobuoni Under 0.5 hits
We're pairing a Mariners player not to get a hit with our best bet.
One of the ways Warren has managed to have a few solid starts lately is by increasing his ground ball rate. Few players out there have a higher career ground ball rate than Miles Mastrobuoni, who sits at around 47%.
I like Warren to win his head-to-head battles with the left-handed batter.
Yankees vs Mariners odds
Yankees vs Mariners live odds
Yankees vs Mariners opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -115 | Seattle -105
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+145) | Seattle +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Yankees vs Mariners trend
The Yankees have covered the F5 run line in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.55 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mariners.
How to watch Yankees vs Mariners and game info
| Location | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Wednesday, 5-14-2025 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, RSNW |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (2-2, 4.75 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Luis Castillo (3-3, 3.95 ERA) |
Yankees vs Mariners latest injuries
Yankees vs Mariners weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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