Yankees vs Mariners Picks and Predictions: New York Bats Lead Team to Victory

Although still first in its division, New York isn't dominating teams like it was a couple of months ago. Will it be able to get back to what made it look unbeatable? Find out in our MLB betting picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Mariners.

Last Updated: Aug 8, 2022 4:05 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Aaron Judge New York Yankees MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners begin a three-game series Monday night. 

New York is in the midst of its roughest patch of the season. It was swept over the weekend by the St. Louis Cardinals and has won just four of its last ten games. For Seattle, it continues to lay claim to a Wild Card spot with the Baltimore Orioles fast on its tails. 

Who will take the first game of this series? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Mariners on Monday, August 8.

Yankees vs Mariners odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Today’s odds opened with the Yankees as slight favorites at around -105. Since then, they’ve taken a bit more money and can be found at the price of -112. The Mariners return around +100.

The total opened up at 8.0 and has also stayed the same since.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Yankees vs Mariners predictions

Picks made on 8/8/2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Yankees vs Mariners game info

Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
Date: Monday, August 8, 2022
First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
TV: YES, ROOT Northwest

Yankees vs Mariners betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jameson Taillon (10-2, 3.96 ERA): The most significant issue facing Taillon this season is that he’s just put too many pitches in the strike zone. Taillon boosts an elite hard-hit rate and does an excellent job of avoiding barrels. But the problem is that he’s simply giving up too many ordinary hits. Teams have successfully targeted his breaking balls, especially against the cutter. Batters are hitting around .300 against it. His last outing came against this same Mariners team, giving up five earned runs through four innings, including two home runs. 

Logan Gilbert (10-4, 3.09 ERA): To say that Logan Gilbert’s first half of the MLB season was fortunate is probably a bit of an overstatement. Gilbert’s xERA is an entire run higher than his actual ERA, and he has one of the highest hard-hit rates in the league. Gilbert’s success has been predicated on an electric fastball that creates a decent amount of swings and misses. Beyond that, it’s hard to understand why Gilbert has been so effective, but he has. His last start came against the same Yankees team in the Bronx. Against them, he gave up a season-high six earned runs in five innings.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 35-17-1 in the last 53 meetings in Seattle. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mariners

Yankees vs Mariners picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

If you’re looking for a “buy-low” spot for the New York Yankees, you won’t find much better than this one. They are in the midst of one of the worst stretches of the season, and subsequently, oddsmakers have priced them at one of the lowest prices you’ll see all season. It comes with some reluctance, but I’m jumping on New York here. 

The key to this handicap is identifying which pitcher you think improves the second time against the same team. Both of these pitchers faced the opposing team, and both of them had their worst starts of the season. I have to expect Taillon to improve on his last start. The metrics say as much but so do the trends. Taillon has only had back-to-back rough starts once this season.

The typical response to a rough outing has been a dominant one, like the last time he gave up five earned runs and then surrendered just one to the Angels in eight innings. In all likelihood, Taillon will still give up a few, but it’s also likely he will improve upon the last showing against them.

I can’t say the same about Gilbert. I’ve often found myself betting against him this season for various reasons. The things that stand out the most are his aforementioned hard-hit rate and his giving up more fly balls and line drives than the league average. Of course, that’s a problem against the Yanks.

Here’s what they’ve done against fly-ball pitchers this season: They homer on average every 17 plate appearances and slug .470. In addition to this, it’s where stars like Aaron Judge thrive. Even more? Despite their recent struggles, the Yankees are still second in the majors in hard-hit rate.

My projections give New York a 55% chance to win tonight. That feels right, given its recent struggles, but the matchup is much more in its favor. Either way you slice it, betting on the Bronx Bombers is the right call tonight.

Prediction: Yankees moneyline (-110 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

This total feels artificially inflated because of what happened the last time these two sides met rather than who these pitchers have been this season. With that being said, I think there’s a chance Gilbert has a blow-up game tonight. Because of that, I’m backing the Mariners team total Under rather than a full-game one. 

Something unique about the last time these two played each other when Tallion took the mound is that Seattle hit two home runs. Both homers wouldn’t have gone out in T-Mobile Park, where it is playing tonight.

With a night game in Seattle, the ball should travel a lot less further, and, in addition, the winds will be blowing in, limiting the ball carry. Taillon shouldn’t have to worry about the ball leaving the park tonight, and I think that will be a big feather in his cap. I also like the aspect of backing a solid start from Tallion situationally. 

My projections like the Under quite a bit here and project both teams will score less than four runs about 65% of the time. I agree with one aspect much more than the other and will be backing that side. 

Prediction: Mariners team total Under 3.5 (+105 at DraftKings)

Best bet

There are some spot plays I’ll target tonight. Aaron Judge hitting a home run because he’s been a little quiet lately is one of those (he’s also got a great matchup). But none of them amount to our edge with the Yankees. This is a bet where my heart is reluctant because of how rough they’ve looked over the last few weeks, but where my head says, you have to back them.

The head is winning out here. The matchup is excellent, the situation is great, and my projections like them to win. What else more do I need to make it my best bet?

PickYankees moneyline (-110 at FanDuel)

MLB parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Yankees vs. Mariners picks, you could win $29.14 on a $10 bet?

Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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