Giants vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Low Score in SoCal

While there is value to be found on the Giants moneyline, they're not easy to trust amid an uneven season, especially against the San Diego Padres. Instead, we're backing the Under as both lefty hurlers have been better than their surface numbers indicate.

Last Updated: Aug 8, 2022 9:30 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Alex Wood San Francisco Giants MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The San Francisco Giants head to San Diego to begin a three-game series against their NL West counterpart Padres tonight.

The Giants have been losing ground in the Wild Card standings, now sitting 6.5 games back while failing to gain any momentum following the All-Star break.

The Padres must be glad that the playoffs have expanded to 12 teams, as they sit only 1.5 games ahead for the third and final NL Wild Card spot.

Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres on Monday, August 8.

Giants vs Padres odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

San Diego opened -160 at home. The line has moved even further in the Padres’ direction, currently residing between -172 and -195 depending on the book. The total opened at 7.5 but has moved up to 8 across all books by Monday morning.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Giants vs Padres predictions

Picks made on 8/8/2022 at 8:35 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Giants vs Padres game info

Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date: Monday, August 8, 2022
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
TV: NBC Sports Bay Area, Bally Sports San Diego

Giants vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Alex Wood (7-9, 4.42 ERA): The left-hander was decent in 2021, posting a 10-4 record and 3.83 ERA in his first season in San Francisco. He’s fallen off a bit in 2022 but a closer inspection of his profile makes it clear he’s been fairly unlucky. His 3.70 xERA and 3.51 FIP are both pretty far below his actual ERA. His .316 BABIP is the highest it’s been since 2016, so it’s evident there’s been some bad luck on batted balls.

Blake Snell (4-5, 4.16 ERA): Similar to Wood, Snell is also a left-hander who hasn’t had the success he hoped for in his second season with his ball club. His 3.41 xERA and 3.25 FIP make it evident that he’s also been better than his surface-level statistics indicate. He’s striking out batters at an elite rate per usual (30.2%) but is issuing too many walks (11.8% walk rate). Things have been going better recently, as he’s allowed one run or less in five of his last six starts.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 8-3-1 in the Padres’ last 12 Monday games. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Padres

Giants vs Padres picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Things haven’t gone according to plan since the Padres acquired Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Brandon Drury at the trade deadline. San Diego has now lost four straight games after winning the first game with its new-look lineup 9-1 over the Colorado Rockies.

In a potential playoff preview, San Diego laid an egg over a three-game sweep at the hands of the NL West-leading Dodgers, capped off by Sunday night's 4-0 defeat.

The Padres aren’t swinging the sticks well, compiling just seven total runs in those four losses. I usually look to go the other way with teams that are one day removed from a Sunday Night Baseball appearance, as it’s a potential sleepy spot.

Alex Wood gets the nod for the Giants. While he’s nothing special, his 3.70 xERA and 3.51 FIP indicate that he’s been unlucky en route to his 4.42 ERA. The Padres rank just 19th in wOBA and 18th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season and were just held scoreless by lefty Tyler Anderson on Sunday Night Baseball. Wood may have more success than some people are anticipating on Monday.

The Padres are also 0-4 in their last four games against a left-handed starter, further highlighting their struggles vs. southpaws.

Snell gets the start for San Diego and is a quality pitcher but San Francisco hits lefties well, ranking 9th in wOBA and 10th in wRC+ against southpaws this season. 

There’s value with San Francisco as this line is too wide, all things considered.

Prediction: Giants moneyline (+167 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

Both starting pitchers have been better than their surface-level statistics would indicate, and there’s reason to expect both to have success on Monday. Snell’s ERA drops to 3.69 at Petco Park — a full run lower than his road mark (4.82). He’s also been significantly better at night (3.42 ERA) than during the day (6.91 ERA) and this game will get underway at 6:40 p.m. local time. 

San Francisco has hit lefties well this season, but it’s been a different tune as of late. The Giants are 0-4 in their last four games against a left-handed starter while ranking 18th in wOBA and 17th in wRC+ against southpaws in the last 15 days. Those aren’t terrible numbers, but they’re well below their season-long ranks against left-handers (9th in wOBA, 10th in wRC+).

Wood has dealt with unfortunate batted ball luck this season with a .316 BABIP the highest it’s been since 2016, and that’s odd considering he’s allowing just a 4.3% barrel rate, suggesting positive regression could be in the offing. He faces a dangerous Padres lineup, but it’s one that has struggled against lefties and has posted just seven runs across the last four games.

Prediction: Under 8 (-110 at FanDuel)

Best bet

There’s some value with San Francisco’s moneyline, but the Giants can’t be fully trusted at this point. For our best bet, I’ll be targetting the total instead.

The Padres have a potent lineup, but the pieces haven’t clicked yet in the wake of the trade deadline. They were just blanked 4-0 on Sunday Night Baseball by a lefty and now face another southpaw in Wood, whose peripheral numbers are better than his record and ERA would indicate.

On the other side, Snell’s been much better at Petco Park and faces a San Francisco lineup that has been struggling mightily as of late.

PickUnder 8 (-110 at FanDuel)

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