The new week kicks off with a bit of a lighter day on the diamond as there are just seven games on the MLB betting board, but there is still plenty of value to be found in the player prop market.
Fading Yusei Kikuchi has been a profitable proposition most of the season, and that probably won’t change against the upstart Orioles. Don’t forget about the unsung hero of the Mets rotation in Chris Bassitt, and Zac Gallen is in for a big performance against the Pirates.
Here are our favorite MLB player prop bets for Monday, August 8.
MLB props for August 8
- Santander Over 1.5 total bases (+115)
- Bassitt Over 18.5 outs recorded (-115)
- Gallen Under 4.5 hits allowed (+120)
Picks made on 8/8/2022 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Tony covers his bases
The surprising Baltimore Orioles saw their five-game winning streak come to an end last night, but this flock of birds has shown baseball it's not to be taken lightly. And part of the reason for that is a lineup full of intriguing young pieces.
One of those pieces is Anthony Santander. The slugging Orioles outfielder is hitting .255 with a .786 OPS and 19 home runs and he has been on fire since coming out of the All-Star break. Santander owns an impressive .339 average and a .982 OPS, including nine extra-base hits over 15 games so far in the second half.
Now, he gets a juicy matchup on Monday night when the Toronto Blue Jays come to town as their American League East rivals hand the ball to one of the shakiest starters in baseball — none other than Yusei Kikuchi.
Kikuchi has been OK since returning to the Jays rotation after a brief IL stint, allowing three earned runs on five hits while striking out 10 in nine innings over two starts. But overall, the lefty has been consistently hit hard more than most Major-League starters.
Kikuchi ranks in the Bottom 1% in average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and barrel rate, resulting in an expected ERA of 5.82.
Santander has just three career at-bats against Kikuchi but has managed a hit and it doesn’t hurt that his numbers bump up to .288 and .879 when facing southpaws this season. Santander looks like a great value to go Over his total bases tonight.
Bassitt's a hound for outs
With all the hoopla that Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer are getting right now (and deservedly so), Chris Bassitt might be the forgotten man in the New York Mets' sterling rotation. But you can make the argument that Bassitt has been the most reliable arm for the Mets all season long.
Not only has the 33-year-old right-hander avoided any lengthy stays on the injured list while making 20 starts, but he’s also quietly been one of the strongest pitchers in the National League. Bassitt is pitching to a 3.20 xERA while limiting opponents to a .217 expected batting average.
Bassitt has also done a great job of working deep into games, averaging 6 1-3 innings pitched per start and he could be in for another long outing tonight when he toes the rubber against the Cincinnati Reds.
The Reds haven’t been all that awful since their 3-22 start to the season, but right-handers still give them a fair number of problems. Cincinnati ranks 23rd in batting average and 27th in both OPS and wRC+ while owning the sixth-highest strikeout rate when facing righty hurlers.
This outs recorded number is one Bassitt has eclipsed in six of his last eight starts and there is good value for him to do so once again.
Gallen plunders the Pirates
It looks like another wasted year in the desert for the Arizona Diamondbacks, but if nothing else the D-Backs know they have their frontline starters for the foreseeable future in Merril Kelly and Zac Gallen. It will be the latter who gets the ball when the Diamondbacks open a series with the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight.
Gallen is having a solid season. The 27-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 3.79 xERA while limiting opponents to a .224 xBA. Gallen mixes four pitches (a four-seamer, curveball, changeup, and cutter) to keep hitters off balance and he should have the upper hand against the Buccos tonight.
The poor Pirates rank 28th in batting average, OPS, and wRC+ while having the third-highest strikeout rate vs. right-handers. And here’s a fun stat, the Pirates have the fewest hits against right-handed pitchers in baseball this season at 518. That’s 36 less than the next closest team.
Gallen has held his opponents to four hits or fewer six times over his last nine starts. At plus money, he looks like a good guy to back to keep those Pirates bats doing what they do best — stay silent.
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