Yankees vs Blue Jays Picks and Predictions: Fading Berrios as Yanks Clinch

Aaron Judge is on the verge of history and the Yankees are on the verge of clinching the AL East. One of the two should happen tonight against the Blue Jays — find out which as we target our best bet in our MLB picks.

Last Updated: Sep 27, 2022 12:51 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
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The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees will play Game 2 of their three-game series tonight. The bluebirds took Game 1 of the series and staved off the Yankees from the AL East Crown for the moment. There are various postseason scenarios at play in this one. If the Yankees win, they'll clinch the East, rendering last night moot. On the other hand, if the Jays win and the Baltimore Orioles lose, Toronto will clinch their spot in the postseason.

Can the Yankees do it tonight, or will the Blue Jays hold them off again? Find our MLB picks and predictions for the Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees on Tuesday, September 27.

Yankees vs Blue Jays best odds

Yankees vs Blue Jays picks and predictions

Tonight is the night, and no, I'm not talking about the Aaron Judge home run race. I actually don't think it will happen this evening. However, tonight is the night that the Yankees will avoid a historical choke and win the AL East. So, I'll be making them my Best Bet.

I've picked on Jose Berrios a ton this season and have had lots of success. He's been better as of late, but an xERA of over 5 says we shouldn't be surprised if he reverts back to his early season form.

It's hard to tell what has happened to him this season, but he's not been himself. I suppose his struggles are mostly tied back to his issues with the fastball. Opposing hitters have absolutely feasted on that pitch when facing Berrios this season. It has posted one of the league's worst run values at 16. That means teams are expected to score approximately 16 more runs than average when seeing that pitch from Berrios. It's almost hard to believe. Of course, this is only part of the analysis, but the Yankees have been pretty good against the fastball. This lineup will feature five batters hitting well above league average against that particular pitch.

Looking deeper here, you'll see Berrios' issues with the hard-hit ball in general. That's an issue against the Yankees. They hit the ball quite hard, if you haven't heard. They have the third-best hard-hit rate in baseball, and Jose Berrios has a hard-hit rate in the bottom 15% of all pitchers. There isn't a clear distinction between him giving up more runs versus teams that rank highly in hard-hit, simply because he hasn't seen many that do. However, he's given up three or more earned runs in two of his three starts against the Yankees. His last outing against them was his best, making me feel like the tides will shift back this time.  

My projections liked Toronto last night, and they like New York tonight. I have them priced at -125, that's an implied probability of about 55% for them to win. I'll take that edge as I believe it's a favorable one, especially factoring in who is on the mound for Toronto.

My best bet: Yankees moneyline (-110 at DraftKings)

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Yankees vs Blue Jays moneyline analysis

As I've talked about in the onset, I like the matchup for the Yankees tonight against Berrios. I didn't speak much about Jameson Taillon simply because there are not many outstanding things to say. Taillon has been one of the most consistently average pitchers in baseball this season. I expect him to be that tonight. He'll likely give up two to three runs keeping the Yankees in the game but not win the game for them. That's precisely what he's done all season. 

The situational part of this is something I didn't mention either, but it's favorable to the Yankees. New York is winning about 65% of their games as a favorite – like they are tonight – this season. After a loss, that number goes up by about 2 or 3%. You also can't overstate the angle of New York trying to close the chapter on the divisional race. There has to be some renewed drive after last night's loss.

In a vacuum, New York has responded well in these spots. They've scuffled repeatedly, but they've always managed to stop the bleeding when necessary. Tonight isn't dire by any means for them, but the intensity will be increased. If they win tonight, the Yankees can relax for a few weeks until the postseason, but if they lose, they'll reinvigorate this divisional race. 

I wholeheartedly believe the Yankees are a better team than the Blue Jays. Tonight, they'll have the best of the pitching matchup. I expect the divisional race to come to a close. 

Yankees vs Blue Jays Over/Under analysis

I don't have much of a feel for this total and won't be playing either side. However, I view the number as close to "spot-on," as you can get.

My projections place the total for this one at 7.5 with a slight edge to the Over. It prices that side as -120 vs. the Under at -105. Essentially, it's saying that the Over has slightly more than a coin-flip chance of happening. I suppose I'd fall there if I were forced to pick sides. There's the potential for Berrios to have a blow-up game if the Yankees get to him early, which makes that a little more attractive.

The trends have a clear side, and it doesn't align with my projection: 

The Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams and 19-5 in the Yankees' last 24 games following a loss.

These two conflicting pieces of data illustrate the issue I have with playing either side tonight. My projections give a slight edge to the Over, and my handicap leans that way. However, the Yankees have been a tremendous Under team lately, and that's even stronger when these two sides meet. Because of this predicament, I'll stay away. 

Yankees vs Blue Jays trend to know

The Yankees are 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Toronto. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Blue Jays

Yankees vs Blue Jays game info

Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
Date: Tuesday, September 27, 2022
First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
TV: YES, Sportsnet

Starting pitchers

Jameson Taillon (13-5, 3.90 ERA): I'd argue that Taillon has been the most consistent starter of any Yankee pitcher this season. He's only had two starts where he's surrendered more than five runs, but even more than that, he's rarely had a game where he left it, and New York was already "out of it." Taillon does nothing extraordinary, but he does a lot of things well. 

He rarely walks batters, induces a good amount of soft contact, and does a reasonably good job keeping the ball in the park. As we noted above, you're not going to get many dominating starts from Taillon, but he's usually going to give you a chance to win.

Jose Berrios (11-6, 5.27 ERA): This season hasn't been a good season for Berrios, especially by his standards. We noted his fastball struggles, and those have been evident at most points of the season. His hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate all rank near the bottom of baseball. 

That indicates a pitcher routinely tee'd up, particularly when facing big bats. Berrios has been better as of late, though. In September, he posted a 4.87 ERA, but his first three starts of the month saw him surrender two or fewer earned runs in each of them. 

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