The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies have split the first two games of their four-game weekend series in Philadelphia, and things are starting to get chippy.
Philadelphia took issue with Ronald Acuna Jr.’s home run trot on Saturday as the September divisional race gets hot.
My Braves vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks believe the home side will get their revenge this afternoon at Citizens Bank Park, with first pitch set for 1:10 p.m. ET on Sept. 6.
Who will win Braves vs Phillies today: Phillies (49%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola has turned around a rough first half of the season and is showing signs of the Cy Young candidate of previous seasons.
He’s won three of his four starts with a 1.96 ERA, 1.130 WHIP and 11 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .209 with a 72 OPS+ against him over that span.
The Atlanta Braves have hit 13% below league average over the past month and averaged less than a homer a game, after hitting 1.4 per game before then.
Look for Nola to keep Atlanta slumping and take Philly down to 54%.
COVERS INTEL: Nola has been leaning hard on his knuckle curve as he turns around his season, throwing it 33% of the time, nearly 10 percentage points more often than his four-seamer. Batters are hitting .178 against the knuckle curve with a whiff rate of 42.8%. 
Braves vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (54%)
The Braves are also starting a pitcher who is turning his season around. Tyler Mahle was 3-9 with a 5.13 ERA with the Giants before being dealt before the August deadline.
Since then, he’s 2-1 and sports a 1.48 ERA with the Braves, with a WHIP below 1.000. He’s cut his walk rate in half, is giving up fewer home runs, and opponents have a .581 OPS against him.
The Phillies have played to the Under seven times in the last 10 games and scored fewer than five in the last three games. Atlanta has also not been Over in the last three, and the two teams have combined for 13 runs in the first two games of the series.
Play this to 58%.
Braves vs Phillies home run prediction: Ronald Acuna Jr. (20%)
Ronald Acuna Jr. stirred up trouble on Saturday by stopping to admire his 450-foot home run before running the bases.
Zack Wheeler pointed out that his teammate Kyle Schwarber, who also went deep in the game, has hit more homers than Acuna without showboating. Look for Acuna to respond at the plate.
He’s homered in two of the last three games and is 8-for-14 with five RBI over that span. Acuna has a 224 OPS+ over the last week with a .440/.481/.720 slash line. He’s also hit .333 with 1.068 OPS against Nola in his career with four long balls.
Play this to 25%.
- ML/RL bets: 32-38, -1.94 units
- Over/Under bets: 43-22, +8.80 units
Braves vs Phillies weather
It will be in the high 70s in Philadelphia, partly cloudy with no chance of rain.
Braves vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Braves 50% | Phillies 49%
- Run line: Braves -1.5 (38%) | Phillies +1.5 (63%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (47%) | Under 8.5 (53%)
Braves vs Phillies trend
The Atlanta Braves have hit the game total Under in 22 of their last 30 away games (+14.65 Units / 45% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies.
How to watch Braves vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 6, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
| Braves starting pitcher | Tyler Mahle (5-10, 4.25 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Aaron Nola (6-10, 4.93 ERA) |
Braves vs Phillies latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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