We’ve finally made it to the 2022 World Series, and it has been quite a ride. This edition matches up one likely opponent in the Houston Astros and more of a cinderella story in the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Phillies' pitching has been stout, but I’d say their bats are what has gotten them here. Philly leads the postseason in runs scored with 57 total. In addition to that, the Phils have achieved four or more runs in four straight games.
The Astros run hasn't been surprising, but that hasn’t stopped it from being any less impressive. They’ve been perfect, and there’s not much to say after that. They swept the Seattle Mariners in three games, then followed it up with a rout of the New York Yankees.
They arrived at this World Series trying to become the first team in the Wild Card era (1995) to go through the postseason completely unscathed. Can aggression on the base paths be a story of Game One? Find out that and more in Game 1 World Series props for the Astros vs. Phillies.
Don't forget to also check out Josh Inglis' full Phillies vs. Astros Game 1 betting preview ahead of the first pitch at Minute Maid Park.
Phillies vs Astros prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Phillies vs Astros Game 1 props
Big on Bregman
We’re big on Bregman tonight. He's a definite candidate to win World Series MVP, and we envision him getting off to a good start.
The Phillies will send out Aaron Nola to the mound. He had been pretty lights out this postseason until his last start against the San Diego Padres. In that matchup, he gave up six earned runs in seven innings. The common thinking would be to back him to have a bounce-back performance. That may happen, but Bregman should cause him issues.
Padres' hitters were able to take advantage of Nola’s curveball. It’s a pitch that’s given Nola issues throughout the season, and this bodes well for Bregman because he works counts well and waits for his pitch.
Bregman hits the offspeed well, as he has the second-best run value on his team on curves and the third-best hard-hit rate against it. He should get them down in the zone where his barrel rate numbers also go up.
Taking a player to go Over his total bases total in the postseason is rarely fun, but I like this spot.
Alex Bregman Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+145)
Tucker takes off
This is the only game of the World Series that I’ll be wagering on someone to steal a base. I want to do it here because Aaron Nola has 23 stolen bases against him this season. That’s 29th in the MLB and the highest of any pitcher in this series. It’s not particularly close, either.
Kyle Tucker quickly gives us the best opportunity to make this happen. He has 39 stolen bases in his last two seasons combined and has already grabbed one this postseason.
In what figures to be a close game throughout, the urgency to win is on the home team, especially in Game 1. It’s not crazy to think that Dusty Baker would want to push the envelope if he sees an opportunity. His best chance to successfully do that would be with Tucker on the basepaths.
My projections have this priced at +465, so I’ll jump all over this play.
Kyle Tucker Prop: Over 0.5 stolen bases (+600)
Patience pays off
This is probably the best value bet on the board, as the edge is unmatched. Verlander’s strikeout prop currently sits at 6.5, and my projections have that priced at -182 when we can get it at -146.
That’s a distinctive edge, one I feel great about betting Philly has gotten here because of their prowess at the plate and patience there. When I wrote my last MLB Power Rankings of the season, I highlighted the Phillies.
I talked about how they were due for some significant positive regression at the plate. A big reason for that was that they had abnormal differences between their expected batting metrics and their actual batting stats.
They are getting that regression and more this postseason. I expect it to continue.
Justin Verlander Prop: Under 6.5 strikeouts (-146)
