Phillies vs Astros World Series Game 1 Predictions, Picks, Odds: Houston's Bullpen Factors in Early

The Houston Astros will hope to stay undefeated in the postseason as they host the Philadelphia Phillies at Minute Maid Park Friday as -165 MLB betting favorites. 

With a pair of quick Championship Series, the Phillies have lost a bunch of momentum, having last played on Sunday. The Astros seemingly have the edge in nearly every aspect and MLB odds list them as -180 to win the series, but the Phillies have been great when right-handers Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler get the ball.

Find out where my best bets lie in Game 1 of the 2022 World Series between the Phillies and the Astros in my MLB picks and predictions.

Phillies vs Astros Game 1 odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under

Phillies vs Astros picks and predictions

Justin Verlander will get the ball for the Astros in Game 1, but with a fully rested dominant bullpen, the heavily-used 39-year-old pitcher will need to be perfect to record 18 outs.

Verlander had a long wait before his series opener vs. the Mariners, who then touched him for 10 hits and six runs over four innings. He followed that up with a spectacular outing vs. the Yankees but still only went 18 outs and needed 103 pitches to do so. With the Astros owning the best bullpen in baseball, Verlander will have to be at his best to hit the Over 17.5 outs. I'm betting against that.

The Phillies are not an easy lineup to navigate, as one of the best-hitting lineups in baseball. The indoor environment at Minute Maid Park also favors home-run hitting, the bullpen is ready to go, with Dusty Baker not afraid to go to it early, and Verlander hasn't been great across seven World Series starts with an ERA above 5.00 while his team has gone 1-6 SU.

With Verlander approaching 200 innings of work after basically not pitching last year, Baker could hold him back in the opener, making sure he is good for Game 4. His strikeout rate is also adding to his pitch count and I'd be surprised if he saw 100 pitches again, with Baker likely needing another start from him.

With the league's best bullpen behind him, Verlander will struggle to go 18 outs. 

My best bet: Justin Verlander Under 17.5 total outs (-105)

Phillies vs Astros World Series odds

Teams	Odds to win series
Philadelphia Phillies	+160
Houston Astros	-185

Phillies vs Astros moneyline analysis

The Astros open the World Series on a 7-0 SU playoff run and a 29-8 SU run since the beginning of September. They have the home-field advantage, which is big considering they finished the season tied with the second-most wins at home with 55.

The Phillies were riding momentum through the playoffs but will a four-day layoff slow them down?

The books took down the lines once Aaron Nola was the confirmed starter for the Phillies, as many believed Zack Wheeler would get the ball in Game 1. The line moved from -165 to -170 immediately at bet365, so there is a consensus that Nola to Wheeler is a slight downgrade for the Phillies.

Nola has made three postseason starts this season and is coming off a rough start, where the Padres hit him around for six runs on seven hits including two home runs. His two starts before that were great, as he threw a total of 12 2-3 innings allowing just one unearned run on seven hits. Wheeler had previously opened each of the Phillies’ three series so the move to Nola is a little surprising. 

The Houston offense has launched at least one longball in each of its seven postseason games and is going deep once every 20 plate appearances, which is better than the Phillies at 25 PA/HR in the postseason. Both lineups are deep and there isn't much of an edge offensively for either side. Houston is hitting .238 in the postseason while the Phillies are hitting .237.

There are some reasons to fade Verlander here. He has thrown a lot of innings after missing all of last season and although he has nearly 200 innings of postseason experience, with a 3.55 ERA, he hasn't been great in the World Series. His team has lost six of his seven World Series starts and he owns a 5.54 ERA in those games.

After a five-day hiatus heading into the Seattle series, Verlander got hit hard allowing 10 hots and six runs over four innings. 

The real edge lies in the bullpen for Houston, as it had the best relief pitching in the regular season and owns a 0.82 ERA in the playoffs. This is the deepest and most talented stable of bullpen arms we’ve seen in a while but the Phillies have good arms as well and have a 1.195 WHIP over 39-plus innings so far in the postseason. If Nola can go deep, the advantage swings in favor of the Phillies.

Ultimately, if Rob Thomson can use two or three relievers and avoid Brad Hand and some weaker middle relievers, the Phillies have some value here, especially with the line moving shorter on the home side.

The Astros’ advantage lies in its depth in pitching but early in the series, that might not be needed as much which has me leaning on the Phillies as the price continues to get longer. 

Phillies vs Astros Over/Under analysis

Through both teams’ 18 postseason games, the total has gone an even 9-9 O/U. Thanks to Houston’s efficient late innings, the Astros are 2-5 O/U and 1-3 O/U at home. Neither team has been hitting for average but the long ball has driven each offense, as the two teams have combined for 26 home runs so far in the postseason.

Verlander had issues in his first start vs. Seattle, where he gave up 10 hits and six runs over four innings. He looked much better vs. the Yankees in his last turn, with an impressive 36% CSW. If he is on vs. a Phillies team that finished Top 10 in swing rate this season, it could be another solid start for Verlander but his history in the World Series isn't great.

If bettors must hit the Over, I’d suggest taking the first five innings Over 3.5, as the Houston bullpen has no weaknesses and has given up just three runs over seven games while Verlander owns a 5.53 ERA over seven World Series starts. I’d also prefer to take the F5 Over in a Nola start vs. a Wheeler start as the Game 1 starter is coming off a shaky NLCS start vs. the Padres.  

I won’t be hitting the F5 Over, however, as the time off has rested the bullpen and it’s tough to judge how the long break will affect the hitters’ timing. Houston had a five-day layoff between the regular season and playoffs and that game vs. Seattle saw 15 total runs scored with Verlander getting hit hard. The variance is high with the big break but if runs do come Friday night, I’ll be looking to hit the Under in Game 2 for sure. 

Minute Maid Park will also be the best hitting environment in the series, as the indoor stage will aid the hitters more than a cold Citizens Bank Park in Games 3 and 4. Minute Maid Park ranked as the 22nd park for runs but 11th for home runs. 

Phillies vs Astros trend to know

The Under is 4-0 in the Astros' last four games following an off day. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Astros

Phillies vs Astros game info

Starting pitchers

Aaron Nola (2-1, 3.12 ERA): Nola carries a 3.11 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP with an 18/3 K/BB ratio over 17 1-3  postseason innings. He also finished with the best WAR in all of baseball for pitchers this season. He faced the Astros just once this year (which was Houston’s last loss) and went six-plus scoreless innings while allowing just two hits. It should be noted Houston didn’t have much to play for in that game and pulled many of its starters halfway through the contest.

Justin Verlander (1-0, 6.30 ERA): Verlander will be making his eighth World Series start and although he is likely taking home the 2022 AL Cy Young, his team is 1-6 SU in his WS starts with a 5.54 ERA. He had a rough go in his first go in the postseason vs. the Mariners but bounced back well with a superb outing vs. the Yankees going six innings of one-run ball and striking out 11. Verlander faced the Phillies in early October and went five scoreless innings with 10 punchouts over five innings. 

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