2023 MLB Win Total Odds & Picks: Judge, Yankees Rotation Are Back in Business

Do you hear that? That’s the beautiful sound of the crack of a bat launching a ball over the outfield wall. Yes, it may seem crazy, but MLB Spring Training is already here, and with Opening Day on the horizon, it’s time to start digging through MLB regular season win totals.

While every team starts fresh, not all teams are created equal, but whether your win total is a sky-high 95.5 or a rock-bottom 60.5, there is always betting value to be found in these uber-popular MLB futures bets. 

I break down the MLB odds for both the National and American Leagues and highlight my favorite MLB regular season win totals for the 2023 season.

Need more offseason insight? Check out our World Series odds, MLB stat leader odds, and pitcher stat leader odds.

2023 National League win total odds

Team	Total	Over	Under	Wins in 2022
Arizona Diamondbacks	74.5	-120	+100	74
Atlanta Braves	94.5	-110	-110	101
Chicago Cubs	77.5	-110	-110	74
Cincinnati Reds	65.5	-120	+100	62
Colorado Rockies	65.5	-105	-115	68
Los Angeles Dodgers	95.5	-125	+105	111
Miami Marlins	76.5	+100	-120	69
Milwaukee Brewers	85.5	-110	-110	86
New York Mets	94.5	-105	-115	101
Philadelphia Phillies	88.5	-115	-105	87
Pittsburgh Pirates	67.5	-115	-105	62
San Diego Padres	92.5	-120	+100	89
San Francisco Giants	81.5	+100	-120	81
St. Louis Cardinals	88.5	-115	-105	93
Washington Nationals	60.5	-105	-115	55

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of February 22, 2023.

NL win total breakdown

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. At 95.5, the Los Angeles Dodgers have the highest regular season win total in the National League. 

The Dodgers are coming off another big season where they racked up 111 wins. It was the fourth time in the last five seasons they exceeded 100 wins, but there are a lot of questions surrounding the Dodgers in 2023. 

They’ve lost Corey Seager and Trea Turner in consecutive offseasons. Long-time Justin Turner is also gone. Walker Buehler is out for the year after Tommy John surgery and they’ll be relying on innings from Noah Syndergaard.

So, there might be some competition with L.A. for the top team in the NL, particularly from the East. The NL East is projected to be one of the toughest divisions in baseball. The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves are both on the board at 94.5 wins, while the reigning NL Champion Philadelphia Phillies are sitting at 88.5. 

Mix in the San Diego Padres and their win total of 92.5 and it could be a very interesting year in the National League.

NL win total best bets

Chicago Cubs Over 77.5 (-110)

The Chicago Cubs are an interesting squad heading into 2023. They basically performed as expected in 2022, going 74-88, but there is reason to think the Cubbies could take a step in the right direction this year.

It starts with improving their defense up the middle, signing Dansby Swanson to a big contract, and allowing Nico Hoerner to slide over to second. The rotation is also quietly solid with Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, and Kyle Hendricks. They've also added Jameson Taillon. 

Then they made a bunch of savvy moves to bring in veterans to help round out a young roster. Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer, and Tucker Barnhardt have all found a home with the North Siders. 

So, the defense and pitching should be solid but the Cubbies will need to score more runs in 2023 if they want to take that next step. They scored the fifth-fewest runs in the NL last season, but if Bellinger can bounce back and Seiya Suzuki continues to develop, the Cubs finishing around .500 is well within reach in a division that isn’t the greatest.

Arizona Diamondbacks Over 74.5 (-120)

The Arizona Diamondbacks will be an interesting team to watch in what looks like a top-heavy NL West. The D-backs exceeded expectations last season, notching 74 wins after their preseason win total had them pegged at 66.5 — and I think they can keep that trend going this season.

You may not realize it but the one-two punch of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly at the top of the D-backs rotation is as good as they come.

While Daulton Varsho is gone, the D-backs got a good return from the Toronto Blue Jays in Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr, both of whom I expect to be in Arizona's Opening Day lineup.

Ketel Marte has a chance to bounce back from a down year, while Evan Longoria should be a good mentor to the D-backs' young players, including MLB’s No. 2 overall prospect in Corbin Carroll.

Arizona even went out and tried to address its biggest hole: the bullpen. The D-backs signed Miguel Castro and Andrew Chafin, while veteran Mark Melancon is still there to close. The Diamondbacks could be a fun team this season.

Washington Nationals Under 60.5 (-115)

I know this is a very low number, but for the Washington Nationals, it represents an increase of six wins to hit the Over and I just have a very hard time seeing that happening.

The Nationals' destruction of their former World Series roster is nearly complete, with Stephen Strasburg being the last impact player from that 2019 team left standing. However, this team won 55 games last year and that was with half a season of Juan Soto and Josh Bell.

This team gave up the second-most runs in baseball last season and had MLB’s worst run differential at -252. A lot of that destruction came post-Soto trade, and there were no tangible improvements made to this roster.

Unfortunately for Washington fans, it appears that ownership has no intention of putting a winning product on the field this season. The Under looks like a solid play here.

2023 American League win total odds

Team	Total	Over	Under	Wins in 2022
Baltimore Orioles	76.5	-120	+100	83
Boston Red Sox	77.5	-120	+100	78
Chicago White Sox	83.5	+100	-120	81
Cleveland Guardians	86.5	-120	+100	92
Detroit Tigers	70.5	+100	-120	66
Houston Astros	95.5	-115	-105	106
Kansas City Royals	69.5	-105	-115	65
Los Angeles Angels	81.5	-120	+100	73
Minnesota Twins	82.5	-115	-105	78
New York Yankees	94.5	+100	-120	99
Oakland Athletics	60.5	+100	-120	60
Seattle Mariners	87.5	-115	-105	90
Tampa Bay Rays	88.5	-110	-110	86
Texas Rangers	82.5	-105	-115	68
Toronto Blue Jays	91.5	-115	-105	92

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of February 22, 2023.

AL win total breakdown

It’s no surprise that the highest win total in the American League heading into the 2023 MLB season belongs to the reigning World Series champion Houston Astros. The Astros' win total is set at 95.5 following a year in which they notched 106 victories on the way to their second title — and it’s a number they’ve eclipsed four times in the last six full seasons.

The Astros' biggest challenge for the AL Pennant comes from non-other than the New York Yankees. The Bronx Bombers are coming off a 99-win campaign and had a massive offseason where they were able to bring back Aaron Judge after his monster season, while also adding Carlos Rodon to their rotation. 

But some of the most intriguing win totals belong to the likes of the Texas Rangers (82.5), and the Los Angeles Angels (81.5). The Rangers made more big moves this offseason bringing in Jacob deGrom, while Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and the Halos continue to try and get over the hump.

At the other end of the baseball odds board, it looks like it’s going to be another long season in The Bay as the Oakland Athletics continue yet another rebuild and are pegged with a rock-bottom win total of 60.5. 

AL win total best bets

Cleveland Guardians Over 86.5 (-120)

The Cleveland Guardians weren’t supposed to amount to much in 2022, but instead, their young core of position players developed rather quickly. Perennial MVP candidate Jose Ramirez is the team’s unquestioned leader, the pitching was excellent, and they have one of the best managers in baseball in Terry Francona. 

As a result, the Guardians were able to take advantage of one of baseball’s weaker divisions, winning 92 games and taking the division crown. I don’t see that changing in 2023. 

Ramirez & Co. got some reinforcements when the team signed Josh Bell in the offseason, and the trio of Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Cal Quantrill form a solid rotation. They're also backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball. 

At the very least, I expect the Guardians to match their performance from last season, not be more than six losses worse in a division that hasn’t shown much improvement between this season and last.

Texas Rangers Under 82.5 (-115)

The Texas Rangers made a splash in free agency prior to last season, signing both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to massive contracts to be their middle infielders for the foreseeable future.

The only problem is that neither of those guys pitch... the Rangers allowed the fourth-most runs in the AL last season and a season of promise resulted in just 68 wins.

Well, the Rangers' brass certainly tried their best to address the pitching problems this offseason. No move was bigger than prying Jacob deGrom away from the Mets. deGrom is arguably the best pitcher in the game when he’s healthy, something just hasn’t been the case the last couple of seasons.

The Rangers completely remade their staff, also bringing in Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney. While that’s better than what Texas had going before, there are still a lot of question marks there. 

It doesn’t help that the AL West could be one of the more competitive divisions in baseball this season. The Rangers need a lot of things to fall right for them to go Over this number... too many things. So, I’m looking at the other side. 

New York Yankees Over 94.5 (+100) 

The New York Yankees entered this offseason with a ton of uncertainty surrounding their future. Would Aaron Judge be returning after his monster, record-setting 62-home run season? Could the team bolster its rotation following another disappointing postseason exit?

The answer was a resounding yes to both. Even if the Yankees did overpay Judge, it almost felt like it would be more costly for them to let him walk. Production aside, he is the leader of that Yankees clubhouse. 

Then an almost as important move was signing former San Francisco Giants starter Carlos Rodon. The big lefty is coming off a fantastic season in his own right, leading MLB in strikeouts per nine innings and FIP, while posting a 2.88 ERA.

With Rodon joining Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, and Luis Severino, the Yankees own arguably the most formidable rotation in baseball. And they’re supported by another excellent bullpen.

While the Yankees lineup outside of Judge seems all or nothing at times, there is enough all, combined with this pitching staff that a decrease of five losses seems unlikely. 

How to bet MLB season win totals

Season win totals are pretty straightforward: you're betting on how many wins a team will have that regular season.

Oddsmakers set a projected number of wins for each team — based on past success, returning personnel, and strength of schedule — and offer Over/Under betting options, allowing you to wager on if a team will exceed that win total (Over) or fall short of it (Under). This total does not include postseason games.

On top of the season win total itself, oddsmakers set an assigned cost to the Over and Under bets — also known as vig or juice — depending on the implied probability of the team winning more or less than that total.

For example, the Blue Jays are projected to win 91.5 games but oddsmakers felt like there was a better chance of them winning 92+ games instead of falling at 91 or less. Therefore, they set the Jays with a win total of 91.5 but increased the vig on the OVER to -115 (bet $115 to win $100) and decreased the vig on the UNDER to -105 (bet $105 to win $100).

• OVER 92.5 WINS (-115)
• UNDER 92.5 WINS (-105)

Season win totals are considered futures betting odds and sportsbooks will take action on season win totals from the time they post the odds until the start of the season. Futures bets are then graded at the end of the season when all results are final.

MLB Win Total FAQ

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