Veteran left-hander Wade Miley is making just his second start of the season, and with his strikeout total low, my Reds vs Guardians predictions are finding value in the Over.
Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, June 9.
Reds vs Guardians prediction
My Reds vs Guardians best bet: Wade Miley Over 2.5 strikeouts (-137 at Caesars)
The Cincinnati Reds signed Wade Miley last week, and he made his season debut against the Milwaukee Brewers, allowing four runs across just two innings.
While he didn't strike out a single batter, that’s not common for Miley, and I’m expecting a different result tonight with his K total suppressed.
When he last pitched a full season in 2023, the veteran collected 79 punchouts in 120 1/3 innings of work. He’s averaged 7.0 strikeouts per nine innings in his career and routinely pitched through the fifth and into the sixth. For this era, Miley isn't an overpowering or elite strikeout pitcher.
But even with a relatively low K/9, he can clear 2.5 strikeouts fairly easily if he can avoid massive damage early on.
While the Cleveland Guardians typically have a reputation for avoiding strikeouts, they've been middling in that department in 2025, ranking 15th in K rate at 22.3%.
Miley will collect a few Ks at the very least in the series opener.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Reds vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Wade Miley Over 2.5 strikeouts
Carlos Santana Over 0.5 hits
Luis Ortiz Over 5.5 strikeouts
Carlos Santana has terrorized Miley over the years, going 7-for-15 with one home run.
Santana is also swinging it well lately, notching at least one hit in six of his last seven, while going hitless just three times since May 17.
Guardians RHP Luis Ortiz has a 4.02 ERA in 12 starts. Although he has gotten hit around at times, the righty has struck out 71 batters in 65 frames.
Ortiz compiled seven Ks against this same Reds team on May 18, and Cincinnati's team strikeout rate is tied for sixth-highest at 23.5%.
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Reds vs Guardians odds
Reds vs Guardians live odds
Reds vs Guardians opening odds
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +140 | Cleveland -164
- Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-154) | Cleveland -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Reds vs Guardians trend
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.20 Units / 28% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Guardians.
How to watch Reds vs Guardians and game info
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Monday, 6-9-2025 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN Ohio Cincinnati, FDSN Ohio |
| Reds starting pitcher | Wade Miley (0-0, 18.00 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Luis Ortiz (3-6, 4.02 ERA) |
Reds vs Guardians latest injuries
Reds vs Guardians weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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