Reds vs Guardians Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today’s MLB Game

Wade Miley is not a prototypical strikeout pitcher, but with a total as low as 2.5, you have to take note. The Reds lefty can take advantage of a Guardians lineup striking out more frequently in 2025 than recent seasons, and so can bettors.

Quinn Allen - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Quinn Allen • Betting Analyst
Jun 9, 2025 • 11:12 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Wade Miley Cincinnati Reds MLB
Photo By - Imagn Images. Wade Miley throwing a pitch during his last tenure with the Reds.

Veteran left-hander Wade Miley is making just his second start of the season, and with his strikeout total low, my Reds vs Guardians predictions are finding value in the Over. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, June 9. 

Reds vs Guardians prediction

My Reds vs Guardians best bet: Wade Miley Over 2.5 strikeouts (-137 at Caesars)

The Cincinnati Reds signed Wade Miley last week, and he made his season debut against the Milwaukee Brewers, allowing four runs across just two innings.

While he didn't strike out a single batter, that’s not common for Miley, and I’m expecting a different result tonight with his K total suppressed. 

When he last pitched a full season in 2023, the veteran collected 79 punchouts in 120 1/3 innings of work. He’s averaged 7.0 strikeouts per nine innings in his career and routinely pitched through the fifth and into the sixth. For this era, Miley isn't an overpowering or elite strikeout pitcher.

But even with a relatively low K/9, he can clear 2.5 strikeouts fairly easily if he can avoid massive damage early on.

While the Cleveland Guardians typically have a reputation for avoiding strikeouts, they've been middling in that department in 2025, ranking 15th in K rate at 22.3%.

Miley will collect a few Ks at the very least in the series opener. 

Caesars QuickPick: Our Reds vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)

Wade Miley Over 2.5 strikeouts

Carlos Santana Over 0.5 hits

Luis Ortiz Over 5.5 strikeouts

Carlos Santana has terrorized Miley over the years, going 7-for-15 with one home run.

Santana is also swinging it well lately, notching at least one hit in six of his last seven, while going hitless just three times since May 17.

Guardians RHP Luis Ortiz has a 4.02 ERA in 12 starts. Although he has gotten hit around at times, the righty has struck out 71 batters in 65 frames.

Ortiz compiled seven Ks against this same Reds team on May 18, and Cincinnati's team strikeout rate is tied for sixth-highest at 23.5%.

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Reds vs Guardians odds

Reds vs Guardians live odds

Reds vs Guardians opening odds

  • Moneyline: Cincinnati +140 | Cleveland -164
  • Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-154) | Cleveland -1.5 (+130)
  • Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)

Odds courtesy of Caesars.

Reds vs Guardians trend

The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.20 Units / 28% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Guardians.

How to watch Reds vs Guardians and game info

Location Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Date Monday, 6-9-2025
First pitch 6:40 p.m. ET
TV FDSN Ohio Cincinnati, FDSN Ohio
Reds starting pitcher Wade Miley
(0-0, 18.00 ERA)
Guardians starting pitcher Luis Ortiz
(3-6, 4.02 ERA)

Reds vs Guardians latest injuries

Reds vs Guardians weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Quinn Allen - Covers
Betting Analyst

Quinn Allen is an experienced sports journalist from Vancouver, Canada who fell in love with sports by the time he could walk. He proceeded to play high-level baseball and soccer growing up and eventually played college baseball in the United States.

After his career ended, Quinn received his broadcast journalism degree from BCIT and has since written for many sports publications. He's currently a senior editor at ClutchPoints and has published work for numerous betting websites in the past. 

Quinn's favorite team is Chelsea FC and he'd like to watch a match at Stamford Bridge one day. He loves to bet on NBA player props and encourages others to bet responsibly and not chase losses.

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