White Sox vs Twins Predictions, Picks, Odds: Cease Keeps Minnesota's Bats Silent

The Minnesota Twins will look to continue their hot start to the season on Monday as they host the Chicago White Sox for the start of a three-game series between the AL Central rivals.

The Twins (6-3) have enjoyed excellent pitching to start the season, and are currently on top of the AL Central standings. The White Sox (4-6) are coming off losing two of three on the road to the Pirates in interleague play over the weekend. 

Chicago’s biggest problem this year has been a lack of dependable pitching, but Monday’s starter, Dylan Cease, has been the exception to that rule.

We’ll break down what that means for today’s game in our free MLB picks and predictions for White Sox vs Twins on April 10. 

White Sox vs Twins odds

White Sox vs Twins predictions

The Chicago White Sox haven’t gotten off to a great start this season, but you can’t fault their offense. The Chicago lineup is producing 5.2 runs per game while hitting at a .287 average and a .780 OPS, both numbers that are well above league average. 

But even that production hasn’t been enough to win games consistently in the early going. The White Sox have watched their pitching staff put up an awful 6.80 ERA over the first 10 games of the season while allowing a league-worst 18 home runs during that stretch. The starting pitching has been bad (5.79 ERA), and the relief corps has been even worse (8.31 ERA, 2.048 WHIP). 

Yet there have been a handful of bright spots on the pitching staff. As expected, Dylan Cease continues to be the Chicago ace, having already turned in two effective starts this season. Last year, Cease went 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA and a 1.109 WHIP to ultimately finish second in the AL Cy Young race behind Justin Verlander. 

Cease has improved in every year of his career, and while we don’t have much of a sample to go on just yet in 2023, it looks like the 27-year-old could be stepping up his production yet again in his fifth season.

So far on the year, Cease has pitched to a 0.706 WHIP while striking out 14.3 batters per nine innings. Those are both career-best numbers, and it’s all the more impressive that he’s putting up those figures in a year in which offensive production is up in the early going.

Cease should be able to continue his strong start against the Minnesota Twins. While Minnesota is off to an excellent start, it hasn't yet joined in MLB’s offensive explosion, putting up an underwhelming 4.11 runs per game. The Twins are near the bottom of the league in home runs (8), batting average (.240), and OPS (.673).

The Twins have instead found success via their outstanding pitching. Through nine games, Minnesota starters are 5-2 with a 2.24 ERA and are holding opponents to a 0.917 WHIP. Overall, the Twins are allowing just 2.67 runs per game, the third-best mark in the majors this year.

Kenta Maeda did his part in his first start, giving up just one run over five innings against the Marlins in a 1-0 loss. However, Maeda is still building up strength after sitting out in 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. While there’s no reason to expect him to be ineffective against the White Sox, he won’t find things nearly as easy on Monday as he did against the Marlins last week.

MLB odds see this game as a virtual tossup, but I’m concerned about the fact that the Twins haven’t been scoring runs. That may be OK when Minnesota can scratch out a few runs against mediocre pitchers, but Cease looks poised to shut down this Twins lineup, while the White Sox can bully their way to a few scores off of Maeda & Co.

I’m predicting another hard-luck loss for Maeda in this one. Let’s back the White Sox on the moneyline.

My best bet: White Sox moneyline (-110 at DraftKings)

White Sox vs Twins moneyline analysis

Minnesota opened this game as the slightest of favorites, with the Twins initially fetching about -108 on the moneyline. At this point, however, most books have both sides sitting at -110 in what amounts to a pick’em game.

If you look around, you can actually get slightly better odds on Minnesota, with some books moving the Twins to as short as even money (+100) as of early Tuesday.

One of the keys to this game is the presence of Cease, who has been good enough to turn the White Sox into an elite team when he’s on the mound, even if they're otherwise mediocre. Last season, Chicago went 20-12 when Cease started games, despite the fact that the team was just 81-81 overall. 

Cease presents a tough matchup for any lineup, especially the light-hitting Twins. And while Minnesota hasn’t really suffered against right-handed pitching in general this year — the Twins have a .675 OPS against righties compared to .665 vs. southpaws — Cease has traditionally had his way with righty heavy lineups like Minnesota’s. For his career, righthanded batters are hitting just .201 with a .283 OPS against the White Sox ace.

I can’t justify picking against Cease in this matchup, especially when the Twins have been struggling mightily to score runs in general. I’m backing the White Sox on the moneyline.

White Sox vs Twins Over/Under analysis

The total on today’s game opened at 7.5 runs and has remained around that number throughout the day. Many sites are slightly favoring the Under, however, with -105 on the Over and -115 on the Under being a typical line at the 7.5 number.

Given what we’ve already talked about with these teams, it won’t surprise you to learn that there’s a dramatic split on how they’ve hit totals this year. The White Sox have slugged their way to hitting the Over in eight of their first 10 games, while the Under has gone 5-3-1 in Twins games thanks to their outstanding pitching.

Today’s game features two elite pitchers, both of whom have finished as the AL Cy Young runner-up once in their careers. And while the White Sox should have enough firepower to score in this game, I’m not expecting them to knock Maeda out of the game early, or to run up the score against a strong Minnesota bullpen.

The reason I have Chicago winning this game is due to my expectation that Cease will shut down the Twins lineup.

Sure, the White Sox should score enough to win a pitching duel, but that doesn’t mean I think either team will get much on the board in this battle. I’m leaning towards the Under even with the added juice.

White Sox vs Twins game info

White Sox vs Twins betting preview

Starting pitchers

Dylan Cease (1-0, 1.59 ERA): Already a solid contributor to the Chicago rotation in his first three years in the majors, Cease emerged as one of the top starting pitchers in the American League in 2022, finishing second in the AL Cy Young Award balloting. Cease continues to punch out batters at a prodigious rate in 2023, racking up 18 strikeouts in his first 11 1/3 innings pitched. If he has a weakness, it is his control: Cease led the league in walks last season, and is surrendering 4.0 bases on balls per nine innings early in 2023.

Kenta Maeda (0-1, 1.80 ERA): The Japanese-born Maeda didn’t make his MLB debut until age 28, but made an immediate impact in the Dodgers rotation. He moved to Minnesota in 2020 and was the Cy Young Award runner-up in the COVID-19 shortened campaign. However, injuries derailed his 2021 season, and he missed all of 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The 34-year-old still looked effective in his first start back this season, allowing one run on three hits over five innings while striking out nine Marlins hitters.

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The White Sox are 2-0 in games started by Dylan Cease this season. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Twins

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